The No.1-seeded Valparaiso Crusaders (30-6) face off against the No.4-seeded George Washington Colonials (27-10) in the fifth round of the NIT tournament at Madison Square Garden. Action gets underway at 7:00 pm ET on Thursday, Mar. 31 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Crusaders barely escaped BYU 72-70 in the 4. Keith Carter had a solid performance, contributing 13 points, five rebounds, and four assists for the Crusaders. The Colonials, meanwhile, are coming off a 65-46 win against San Diego State in the 4. Tyler Cavanaugh played well, accumulating 20 points and 11 rebounds to claim his 11th double-double of the season.
Alec Peters has really been playing well recently for the Crusaders, averaging 24.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks, and 2.4 three-pointers over the last five games. On the other side, the Colonials have their own duo that have been hot in that span. Kevin Larsen has averaged 14.2 points, 8.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 1.0 three-pointer, while Cavanaugh has put up 19.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.4 three-pointers.
Points could be at a premium in this matchup between two of the nation’s best defenses. Valparaiso ranks first in the nation in defensive efficiency (90.9), while George Washington is eighth (101.9). Also, the Colonials commit the fifth-fewest errors in the nation (TO% of 16.9%), while the ball-hawking defense of the Crusaders causes the fourth-most (opponents’ TO% of 19.1%).
The Crusaders come into this game 30-6 Straight Up (SU) and 17-17 Against The Spread (ATS). The Crusaders will be looking to turn around their defense after struggling a bit recently. The Crusaders have given up an average of 69.4 points to opponents in their last 10 games, well over their defense’s season average of 62.2 PPG. Teams have to fight for open shots against the Crusaders, who have the best opponent field-goal percentage in the country at .383.
Across the court, the Colonials have a record of 17-17-1 ATS and 27-10 SU. The Colonials convert their free throws at a high percentage, ranking 22nd in the nation at .750. Switching gears to the George Washington defense, teams seem to consistently miss shots against the Colonials, who are the eighth-best team in the nation in terms of opponent field goal percentage allowed at .429.
Valparaiso and George Washington will be facing off for their first head-to-head game in recent seasons.
Predictions: SU Winner – Valpo, ATS Winner – Valpo
Notes
George Washington averages 75.9 points per game this season. Valparaiso is one of the best teams in points allowed, giving up just 62.2 points per game (ranked ninth).
Valparaiso has allowed an average of 60.8 points per home game this season. George Washington averages 72.9 points per away game, ranking 89th in scoring.
Ranked eighth, the George Washington Colonials have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 101.9 points per 100 possessions. The Valparaiso Crusaders rank 73rd in offense, scoring 110.6 points in the same number of possessions.
Valparaiso averages 68.4 possessions per game, scoring 1.106 points on each possession. While George Washington averages fewer possessions per game with 67.0, they score more points per possession with 1.129.
The Valparaiso Crusaders average an effective field goal percentage of 51.3% this season. The George Washington Colonials have split their games this season (6-6) when opponents have an eFG% of 51.3% or greater.
The Valparaiso Crusaders average 22.0 three point attempts per game, and the George Washington Colonials attempt 19.0 per game. When going for at least 20 three pointers in a game this season, both teams have winning records; Valparaiso is 20-6 and George Washington is 11-6.
Valparaiso, the 45th-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.7 per game. George Washington does worse, ranked 191st with 3.2.
Valparaiso ranks 47th in offensive rebounding. George Washington ranks 115th in defensive rebounding.
On average, Valparaiso makes 6.8 steals per game. George Washington has a solid 15-7 record when it gives up at least 6 steals.
