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Home » Blog » WAFCON permutations: What South Africa, Nigeria and others must do to reach quarters
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WAFCON permutations: What South Africa, Nigeria and others must do to reach quarters

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Last updated: August 4, 2026 3:00 am
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Only Morocco, of the tournament favourites, has avoided an early setback in the group stage, while Nigeria, South Africa and Ghana have each suffered a defeat, leaving none of that trio — nor Zambia — guaranteed progression into the quarterfinals as final group fixtures approach, according to tournament coverage.

In Group B, South Africa have considerable work to do after losing their opener 2-1 to Tanzania and being held to a dramatic 2-2 draw with Ivory Coast. Thembi Kgatlana pulled one back in the 71st minute and Hildah Magaia levelled in the 99th minute, the latest goal of this WAFCON, after the Elephants rested N’Sira Ouedraogo following a 2-0 lead, according to tournament coverage.

South Africa sit on one point and trail Tanzania and Burkina Faso, both on three, as well as group leaders Ivory Coast. Only a victory over Burkina Faso keeps Banyana Banyana in contention; they must then hope Ivory Coast beat Tanzania to overtake the Twiga Stars into second. If both South Africa and Tanzania win, Tanzania would top the group and South Africa would need to overturn Ivory Coast’s superior goal difference (+3 to South Africa’s -1) to progress — a result likely to require a large-margin win, according to tournament coverage.

Burkina Faso can guarantee a place in the knockouts with a win; a draw would only see them advance if Ivory Coast defeat Tanzania. Ivory Coast themselves must avoid defeat to secure qualification, while South Africa face elimination even with a win if the other result ends in a draw because of an inferior head-to-head record with Tanzania, according to tournament coverage.

In Group C, Malawi — ranked 153rd prior to the tournament — have won their opening two matches, including a convincing 3-1 victory over Egypt that showcased Temwa Chawinga. Despite six points, Malawi could still be eliminated: a loss to Zambia combined with a Nigeria victory over Egypt would leave three teams on six points. In that scenario, any Zambia win by more than one goal would leave Malawi out; a one-goal Zambia win would level points and head-to-head records (assuming Nigeria beat Egypt), with Malawi’s three goals against Nigeria potentially decisive, and a draw for Nigeria against Egypt would be sufficient to progress if Zambia fail to beat Malawi, according to tournament coverage.

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