The Dallas Mavericks (2-7) look to snap their six-game losing streak when they take on the Washington Wizards (2-7) at American Airlines Center. The game will air on NBATV at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 6, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 227 points with Washington opening as a 1-point favorite.
Washington Wizards vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction
In the Wizards’ last outing, they covered the 6.5-point spread against the New York Knicks, 108-95. The combined points for the game (203) were well under the projected point total of 223.5. The Wizards made 30 of their 39 free throws (76.9 percent), while the Knicks had a turnover percentage of 15.2 (above their season average of 11.6). Washington was led by John Wall, who was the game’s high scorer with 26 points on 9-for-16 shooting.
The Mavericks were beaten by the New York Knicks in their last contest, 118-106, despite being 5.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (224) were over the projected point total of 216. New York’s 11.2 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Dallas, who had a rate of 16.4. The Knicks’ mark was better than their season average of 11.6. Dallas’ Luka Doncic finished with 18 points, nine rebounds and six assists in the contest.
The Mavericks won both meetings against the Wizards last season. In the last contest, Dallas won 98-75. Dallas had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.494 vs. 0.343). Washington, meanwhile, had a better free throw rate (0.186 vs. 0.138).
Washington comes into the contest with records of 2-7 straight up (SU) and 2-7 against the spread (ATS). Of the Wizards’ nine games, six have gone over the projected point total.
Dallas is 5-4 ATS, despite being 2-7 SU. Games including the Mavericks also tend to go over the total (66.7 percent).
This has potential to be a mistake-prone game for the offense of Dallas. Dating back to last season, Dallas ranks 28th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 12.4 percent), while the disruptive defense of Washington has forced the eighth-most turnovers in the league (14.5 percent). Moreover, the Wizards, who rank 28th in offensive rebounding percentage (22.9 percent), could struggle to get second chance points against the Mavericks, who rank fourth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.1 percent).
Washington Wizards vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Dallas is 16-13 when they allow less than 100 points, while Washington is 21-4.
The Mavericks are 20-35 when they score more than 100 points, while the Wizards are 44-28.
Dallas ranks first in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while Washington ranks 24th (13.3).
The Mavericks rank sixth in rebounds allowed per game (45.4) while the Wizards rank 28th (43.2).
Washington ranks fifth in fast break points per game (12.6) while Dallas ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (14.5).
The Wizards rank first in blocks per game (4.6) while the Mavericks rank 19th (3.9).
Dallas ranks second in three pointers allowed per game (29.1) while Washington ranks 18th (29.3).
The Mavericks rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.4) while the Wizards rank 19th (46.1).
Dallas averages 15.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the league. Washington ranks 21st in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.2).
The Wizards rank ninth in steals per game (7.9) while the Mavericks rank 21st in steals allowed per game (7.5).
Dallas ranks 17th in assists per game (22.8) while Washington ranks 28th in assists allowed per game (22.8).
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