Week 19 Free Betting Matchup: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis Colts are underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. The opening kickoff for this importantgame is set for 4:35 p.m. ET and fans can witness the action live on NBC.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview

In this Saturday AFC game, Kansas City is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 5 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to wager $200 to win $100 back on the Chiefs (-200). The Colts are getting +170 moneyline odds. If one side gets out in front early on it will result in a worthwhile in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 57 points.

Sharp bettors are siding with both the Chiefs and the over. The line originally opened at -4 and the game’s total was initially only 55.5.

Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Colts have gained 5.5 units while the Chiefs are ahead 7.0 units.

The Colts are 11-6 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Chiefs are 12-4 SU.

The Colts are coming off a resounding 21-7 victory over Houston in Week 18 where Andrew Luck completed 19 passes for 222 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Marlon Mack (148 rushing yards on 24 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack. T.Y. Hilton (five receptions, 85 yards) and Chester Rogers (four catches, 46 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

Kansas City is coming off of a 35-3 win over Oakland back in Week 17. The defense let the Raiders run for 127 yards on 29 rush attempts. Doug Martin had a productive outing in the defeat for Oakland, posting 100 rushing yards on 21 attempts. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 14-of-24 passes for 281 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Damien Williams (51 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) and Darrel Williams (31 yards on 11 carries) mounted the running game as Tyreek Hill (five receptions, 101 yards, one TD) and Travis Kelce (five catches, 62 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.

When looking at offensive play-calling, each of these squads sports a strikingly similar (60-40 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Colts have run for 113 yards/game and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Chiefs are putting up 116 rush yards per game and have 16 total rushing TDs.

The Colts offense has tallied 283 yards/contest in the air overall and has 41 passing TDs so far. The Chiefs have put up 320 pass yards per contest and have 50 total pass scores.

Defensively, Indianapolis seems to have the upper hand in both phases. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 102 yards and pass for 251 yards per game. The Kansas City D has allowed 295.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 132.1 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Colts have given up an ANY/A of 5.92 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs are allowing an ANY/A of 6.29.

Passing-wise, Luck has amassed 4,530 yards on the year, and has completed 67 percent of his 636 attempts with 38 scores through the air and 15 interceptions. He has a 6.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.50 over the last two games.

As a group, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton and Dontrelle Inman have combined to account for 548 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.

In the other huddle, Patrick Mahomes has managed to complete 360-of-540 passes for 4,824 yards, 47 TDs and 12 INTs. Mahomes’ ANY/A sits at 8.96 for the year and 9.25 over his last two outings.

Similar to the Colts, expect a balanced attack offensively from Kansas City this Saturday. As a trio, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams and Travis Kelce have combined to account for 522 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two games.

RELATED: NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting Odds and Predictions 

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Betting Notes

The Kansas City defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 52 times this season. Indianapolis has registered just 41 sacks.

Kansas City has lost six fumbles this season while the Indianapolis offense has let nine get away.

The Colts offense has registered seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Chiefs have put up 13 such plays.

The Indianapolis defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up eight such plays.

The Indianapolis offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas City has created 16 such runs.

The Colts defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Chiefs have given up 11 such runs.

The Over/Under for Kansas City’s previous outing was 52.5. The under cashed in the 35-3 victory over Oakland.

Over its last three matchups, Kansas City is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Over its last three matchups, Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Indianapolis has won 11 of its last 12 games SU, with a December 2nd defeat to Jacksonville accounting for the only loss over that stretch.

The Over/Under for Indianapolis’ last game was set at 49. The under cashed in the team’s 21-7 victory over Houston.

Indianapolis has produced 4.7 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.0 over its last two.

Kansas City has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its past two.


Written by GMS Previews

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