Another positive step for the underdog picks last week, with Purdue putting an exclamation point on the picks with a straight-up victory against Ohio State in the most high-profile upset of the season. Let’s do it again — here are this week’s best college football underdog picks.
Underdog pick No. 1: Arkansas
Vs. Vanderbilt (-1), noon ET, SEC Network
Related: College Football Betting Guide | Parlay Betting
These are probably the worst two teams in the SEC, but it does appear to be an evenly matched game and will certainly hold your interest if you have a few dollars on the line. Arkansas has been a popular pick in this space, and the Razorbacks have come through a couple of times with covers against Texas A&M and Ole Miss (and a close loss against the spread to Auburn). We’ll go back to the well, as computer rankings — and the teams’ current trends, with Arkansas playing better and Vandy struggling on offense — make it seem like Arkansas ought to be favored in this game.
Pick: Arkansas +1
Underdog pick No. 2: Northern Illinois
At BYU (-7), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
Speaking of two teams trending in opposite directions, Northern Illinois has won four straight Mid-American Conference games and was competitive against Utah at home. The Huskies’ other losses are at Iowa and Florida State. BYU, meanwhile, rose as high as No. 20 in the country after beating Wisconsin. But the Cougars have dropped two of their past three, both by more than 25 points. BYU has struggled to score against quality opposition, and that means Northern Illinois should be able to keep this game close, even after a long road trip.
Pick: Northern Illinois +7
Underdog pick No. 3: Louisiana-Lafayette
Vs. Arkansas State (-3), 7 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Off the beaten path a bit for this one, but the Ragin’ Cajuns (besides having one of the best nicknames in sports) have been very competitive under a new coach in Billy Napier. Against non-top 25 competition — three of UL-Lafayette’s four losses have come to Alabama, Mississippi State and Appalachian State, and they did cover against two of those teams — the Cajuns have averaged 46.3 points per game. Arkansas State is solid, but the Red Wolves also have given up quite a few points. Expect a shootout that could come down to the final possession, and if that’s the case, be comfortable with the home team and some points in your favor.
Pick: UL-Lafayette +3.5
Underdog pick No. 4: Oklahoma State
Vs. Texas (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET, ABC
Texas has been launched into the top 10 after its big victory over Oklahoma a few weeks ago, but there’s some big-time overvaluing being done here. Granted, that was a big victory that Texas cemented with a last-second field goal, but let’s examine the rest of the Longhorns’ resume: A loss to Maryland (??), survivals at home against Tulsa and Baylor, a survival on the road against one of Bill Snyder’s worst teams at Kansas State, and very solid home performances against USC and TCU. It’s a mixed bag, and none of it inspires much confidence that Texas can go control good teams week in and week out, especially on the road. Oklahoma State is ripe for the outright win as a live dog here.
Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5
Underdog pick No. 5: Arizona
Vs. Oregon (-10), 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Feel like staying up late? On a college football Saturday, of course you do. Just like Purdue last week, we’ve got another double-digit home dog playing a primetime game at home. Arizona started out Kevin Sumlin’s tenure in terrible fashion and hasn’t been a whole lot better in recent weeks, but they were able to take USC down to the wire and beat Cal in their past two home games. Oregon, meanwhile, also looked like a different team away from home at Washington State last week. The Ducks probably find a way to win this game, but you shouldn’t have a lot of confidence they can do it by more than 10 points.
Pick: Arizona +10
SEASON RECORD: 20-22 ATS, 12-30 straight up
