The Saint Mary’s Gaels (9-2) will attempt to prolong their six-game home winning streak in a matchup against the Dayton Flyers (5-5) at McKeon Pavilion. The game gets underway at 10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 19, 2017.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 140 points with Saint Mary’s opening as an 11-point favorite.
Dayton Flyers at Saint Mary’s Gaels ATS Prediction
In the Flyers’ last outing, they topped the Georgia State Panthers, 88-83. The Flyers, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 24.7, had an absurd mark of 35.3 and had a free throw rate of 0.491 (above their season average of 0.195). Dayton rallied around Josh Cunningham, who was the game’s leading scorer with 29 points on 8-for-9 shooting.
The Gaels defeated the UC Irvine Anteaters in their last outing, 73-66. One of Saint Mary’s’ largest strengths was getting to the free throw line. They had 29 free throw attempts, 16 more than UC Irvine. Jock Landale was the top scorer from either team with 25 points on 8-for-16 shooting.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the nation’s slowest-paced teams face off. Saint Mary’s ranks 337th in possessions per game (65.3) and Dayton is 262nd (68.6). Furthermore, the Flyers rank 285th in offensive rebounding percentage (25.9 percent), while the Gaels rank 46th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.3 percent).
Dayton heads into the game with records of 5-5 straight up (SU) and 4-6 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been spot on when predicting totals of Flyers games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Saint Mary’s is 9-2 SU, but they are just 2-6 ATS. Much like to Dayton, there does not appear to be a trend for Gaels games in regards to the projected point total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Landale has averaged 23.4 points and 11.0 rebounds over the last five games for Saint Mary’s.
After the Gaels won the sole contest against the Flyers last season, 61-57, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Gaels’ 34.3 offensive rebounding percentage was their largest strength over the Flyers, who had a rate of 23.5.
Dayton Flyers vs. Saint Mary’s Gaels Odds Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Saint Mary’s, ATS Winner – Dayton, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Dayton is 2-2 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders.
Saint Mary’s is 0-3 ATS at home with 2 unders and 1 over.
Saint Mary’s ranks ninth in three pointers allowed per game (16.3) while Dayton ranks 145th (22.2).
The Gaels rank 32nd in assists per game (16.9) while the Flyers rank 139th in assists allowed per game (14.0).
Dayton ranks 28th in blocks allowed per game (2.4) while Saint Mary’s ranks 114th (3.7).
The Gaels rank second in steals allowed per game (4.0) while the Flyers rank 81st (6.2).
Saint Mary’s is fourth in the NCAA with 28.9 rebounds allowed per game while Dayton is 31st with 31.3 rebounds allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Dayton is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Saint Mary’s is 1-3 ATS with 2 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Flyers have been outscored by an average of 1.0 point in their last five games. For the season, Dayton has defeated opponents by an average of 1.2 points.
During their last five games, the Gaels have scored an average of 79.0 points per game (2.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 67.8 points per game (0.7 below their season average).
