The University of Southern California continues their tournament after fighting back from double-digit deficits in both of their games and will face the East No.3 seed Baylor Bears on Sunday in Oklahoma. It will be the Trojans third game in five days and they might need to pull out an extra battery pack to pull another upset.
Place: Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Date/Time: Sunday March 19th, 2017. 07:45 PM ET
TV Coverage: TRU TV
#3 Baylor Bears vs. #11 USC Trojans
LINE: Baylor Bears -7 (-105)
Total: 143 points (-105 over, -105 under)
Baylor advance into the 2nd round after a furious second half performance
The ghosts of the previous two years certainly might have tried to creep in the Baylor Bears’ (26-7) players’ heads when they went to their locker trailing the New Mexico State Aggies 38-40 at the halftime break. The Aggies hit 6 threes in the first half, including one at the buzzer for a bitter taste. But the Bears were not to be deterred again – they took control early in the second by going on a 14-3 run and it was all Baylor the rest of the way.
The Bears hit their shots throughout the game, better than 50 percent in each half. The difference was that they’ve established their defense only in the second half, holding the Aggies to 33 points after the break. Baylor got some boost from their reserves as Al Freeman and Terry Maston combined 40 points off the bench, while Motley, Lual-Acuil Jr. and Lecomte also scored in double digits. The Bears’ superior physical abilities also made a huge difference as the Bears outrebounded the Aggies with 39-27.
The good second half helped erase some rust as the Bears hadn’t played a game since March 9th due to early exit from the conference tournament, but the game also reminded us about how inconsistent the Bears were in the last couple of months. For the season, Baylor averages 72.2 points per game, while allowing 62.2 points to their opponents. They will continue to rely on their defense to win games.
USC Trojans don’t hide their joy after advancing into the 2nd round
As much as the USC Trojans (26-9) resilience is commendable, they are dancing on the edge of the knife the last two games. This time, they needed a late 3-pointer to knock off the SMU Mustangs 66-65. Once again, the Trojans suffered from the slow start and trailed by as much as 12 points in the first half, and by 8 points at the break. They didn’t allow the Mustangs to get into the offensive flow, but struggled finding open looks themselves. Things changed after the break, as USC shot incredible 58.3% from the field.
The Trojans used deep rotation to avoid let down because of the fatigue, but the bench players provided only 7 points. They were led by Elijah Stewart’s strong outside shooting. Stewart scored 6 triples (from 13 attempts) for 22 points, including the decisive one with 30 seconds to go. Metu and Boatwright added 14 points apiece.
Their half court offense is far from smooth, they rely on the ball handlers to finish their actions, mostly by launching the deep shots. USC has attempted 47 3-point shots in their last two games. They are much better in transition so they will look to push the ball before Baylor defense settles.
#3 Baylor Bears vs. #11 USC Trojans Game Trends & Prediction
The Baylor Bears are 15-13 ATS and 11-16-1 against the over/under, and they’ve covered in 3 of their last 4 games – a sign that their crisis has ended. After three consecutive overs, the books will look to adjust the total line very soon.
The USC Trojans are the worst remaining team left in the pool, but they have recently beaten the odds and covered in 5 of their last 6 games, bringing their ATS record to a healthy 18-16. Additionally, 5 of the last 6 games ended in under points, and they are now 16-17-1 on total points market.
Baylor is one class above their opponent and should comfortably win this one. The Trojans will struggle to score on the Bears and the long shot magic is bound to end. They simply can’t cope with many weapons the Bears can throw at them, so they will likely play more zone defense to protect the inside, which I don’t believe will trouble Baylor all that much. Take the favorite here to cover the spread. The line is slightly below what I expected, but given that I don’t think the Trojans can put more than 60-65 on Baylor, the overs will be tough to get. Take the under points.
My Pick: Baylor Bears -7
Total: Under 143 points
