NCAAF Picks: The Alabama Crimson Tide is coming off a huge 20-13 gut check win at LSU in which they had to rally late to send the game into overtime for the eventual payout as 6.5 point chalks. The Mississippi State Bulldogs are having the ultimate dream season but can have that turn into a nightmare this week.
Alabama will host Mississippi State at Bryant Denny Stadium on Saturday with coverage on CBS starting at 3:30 PM ET. Alabama opened as a seven point favorite.
Crimson Ink
Alabama is 8-1 straight up, 3-6 against the spread, and 4-5 under the total. The Tide ranks fourth in the nation for total defense and second for scoring defense. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has made a solid contribution as Alabama ranks 20th in the nation for total offense. QB Blake Sims has a 9.1 yards per pass attempt average with a sparkling 16-to-3 TD-INT ratio.
Midnight for Cinderella?
Mississippi State is 9-0 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 5-4 over the total in what is to date the greatest season in program history. The Bulldogs are coming off a 45-16 win over 1-AA Tennessee Martin. Mississippi State ranks a championship level seventh in the nation for total offense but defense is another matter.
The Bulldogs rank 91st in the nation for total defense which is something that is almost a certainty to bite them hard in the behind before season’s end. QB Dak Prescott is a top tier Heisman Trophy candidate with 9.3 yards per pass attempt, an 18-to-7 TD-INT ratio, and 5.4 yards per carry with 11 TD’s as the team’s second leading rusher.
Our Pick
Mississippi State has been a strong road betting value with six payouts in their last eight away games. The Bulldogs have gone under the total in five out of their last nine away games.
Alabama has been a surprisingly good betting value at home despite their status as the ultimate name brand public team in college football. The Tide has covered the spread in six out of their last nine games at Bryant Denny Stadium with just three out of their last nine home games going under the total.
Alabama has covered the spread in four out of their last six games with Mississippi State. The Tide and Bulldogs have failed to go over the total in their last seven meetings. Alabama has come away with the money in their last three home games with Mississippi State as none of those three games cleared the total.
We’ll call for Alabama to flex their muscles and show the nation who is boss in the SEC West. Alabama and under is the call.
