NCAAF Picks: Florida Gators head coach Will Muschamp is on one of the hottest seats in the country as his offense has gone through three coordinators in three years with inept results and poor betting value. Ever since a promising 2012 season, it’s been a reign of error for Muschamp in Gainesville. The Gators are coming off yet another disappointing loss to an LSU team whose roster has been picked clean by the NFL and was ripe for a whipping. The Missouri Tigers have proven to suffer from far too many key departures off of last year’s SEC East Division champion team to be realistically competitive this year as evidenced by their ugly 34-0 home loss to Georgia last week.
In a matchup that could have significant bowl implications for both teams the Gators will host the Tigers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ESPN/ESPN2 starting at 7 PM ET.
Toothless Tigers
Mizzou’s offense has quickly become a severe liability and a drag on the Tigers contender status, Missouri is 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread, and 2-4 under the total as the Tigers rank 107th in the nation for total offense and QB Maty Mauk is suffering from the proverbial sophomore jinx with a weak 54 percent completion rate and erratic 14-8 TD-INT ratio.
In the Muck of the Swamp
Florida is 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 4-1 over the total after a 30-27 home loss to an LSU team that has been as bad offensively as the Gators. UF ranks 90th in the nation for total offense and their defense, once considered a strength, ranks only 44th for points allowed. The one bit of good news is that QB Treon Harris is cleared to play after last week’s sexual battery accusation against him was withdrawn.
Matchup and Pick
Florida has been a terrible board value at home with just five payouts in their last 20 home games at the Swamp with six out of their last ten home games going over the total. Missouri on the other hand has been a good betting value on the road with 10 payouts in their last 12 road games as eight out of their last ten away games have gone over the total.
The gauntlet of the SEC schedules makes every team wonder where the wins will come from to attain bowl eligibility which makes this one huge for both of these bubble teams. Mizzou has covered the spread in both of their previous meetings with the Gators and we’ll ride that streak in this matchup with Missouri as the call.
