The New Mexico Lobos (3-6) square off with the New Mexico State Aggies (6-2) at Dreamstyle Arena. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 9, 2017, and will air on ESPN 3.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. New Mexico Lobos Free Prediction
In the Aggies’ last contest, they were beaten by the San Diego Toreros, 65-60. San Diego’s 0.598 effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over New Mexico State, who had a mark of 0.414. The Toreros’ mark was above their season average of 0.504, while the Aggies’ was below their season average of 0.541. Jemerrio Jones put together a solid outing for New Mexico State, recording 14 points and 11 rebounds.
The Lobos lost big to the Colorado Buffaloes in their last contest, 75-57. Colorado’s 0.269 free throw rate was their largest advantage over New Mexico, who had a rate of 0.085. The Buffaloes’ mark was below their season average of 0.279, while the Lobos’ was below their season average of 0.245. Anthony Mathis had a good performance for New Mexico, leading the team in scoring with 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting.
New Mexico might struggle to put up points as they square off against one of the NCAA’s best defenses. Since the 2016-17 season, New Mexico State ranks 45th in defensive efficiency while the Lobos rank 168th in offensive efficiency. Moreover, the Aggies rank 54th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.285), while the Lobos rank 277th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.274).
New Mexico State comes into the game with records of 6-2 straight up (SU) and 1-0 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total high when the Aggies are involved, as 100.0 percent of their games have gone under the total.
Meanwhile, New Mexico is 3-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. Much like New Mexico State, Lobos games also have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (75.0 percent).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Zach Lofton scored a game-high 28 points in the first matchup, in which the Aggies defeated the Lobos 75-56, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 131 points, which was 25 points below the projected point total of 156 points. The Aggies had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (61.0 vs. 26.5) and had a much better free throw rate (0.328 vs. 0.192).
New Mexico State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – New Mexico State, ATS Winner – New Mexico State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes (2016-Present):
New Mexico State ranks 29th in steals allowed per game (5.0) while New Mexico ranks 250th (7.3).
The Aggies rank 25th in rebounds per game (39.7) while the Lobos rank 231st (34.5).
New Mexico State ranks ninth in assists allowed per game (10.2) while New Mexico ranks 206th (14.1).
The Aggies rank 127th in three pointers attempted per game (22.2) while the Lobos rank 266th (18.2).
New Mexico State ranks second in blocks allowed per game (1.7) while New Mexico ranks 123rd (3.3).
