NFL Futures: If anyone doubted the importance and excellence of New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton those were erased last year as the Saints returned to the playoffs with a record of 11-5 straight up after going 7-9 and missing the playoffs the year before when Payton was suspended for the infamous “Bountygate” scandal. The Saints have made the playoffs in four out of the last five seasons and have promising prospects for 2014 as their defense was vastly improved last year under new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The Saints opened at BetDSI as a +1300 choice to win the Super Bowl and a +650 choice to win the NFC championship. New Orleans had an over under win total of 9.5 -210 over and +180 under.
A Step below Elite?
Ryan inherited a defense that was the worst in Saints history and improved it to rank 4th overall in the NFL last year. There is plenty of youth and upside on the defensive side of the ball but the one irritant that has not been fixed is a running game that ranked 25th in the NFL last year. That lack of a ground attack separates the Saints from the Seahawks and 49ers as NFC elite.
Handicapper’s Notebook
The Saints have covered the spread in seven out of their last 19 away games as 11 out of their last 15 road games have gone under the total. The Saints have covered the spread in 15 out of their last 20 home games at the Mercedes Benz Superdome with just seven out of their last 19 home games going under the total. The Saints have been a poor board value as a dog with just eight payouts in their last 20 games when getting points as they have gone under the total in 10 out of their last 18 games as a pup. The Saints have lost just five out of their last 18 games against the spread as a favorite with 10 out of their last 16 games as a chalk going under the total.
Our Prognosis
The Saints will need better offensive balance as they have become too reliant on Brees. While the defense was vastly improved it still needs to tighten up against the run. The Saints should be in the thick of the NFC South Division race but are not quite “Super” in our view.
