Regardless of whatever else we learned, our primary focus is the myriad of sliding doors playoff scenarios ahead of us for Week 17. So with that, let’s kick off our NFL Week 16 look-back with who’s in and how the rest of the field could fill up after next Sunday.
WHO IS IN?
AFC
New England Patriots (12-3), Currently No. 1 seed
The Patriots clinched a first round bye Sunday with their 37-13 win over the Buffalo Bills. They haven’t secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs just yet. They’ll have to defeat the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium Sunday to do that. New England is currently a -15.5 favorite in that game.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3), Currently No. 2 seed
The Steelers too set up a first round bye with a victory on Christmas Eve. They downed the Houston Texans 34-6. Pittsburgh can still get home field advantage with a win Sunday over the Cleveland Browns and a Patriots loss.
It's not a "game changer" but James Harrison immediately telling the Patriots the names of all the Steelers line calls, stunts, checks, etc. certainly doesn't hurt either.
— Ross Tucker (@RossTuckerNFL) December 26, 2017
Jacksonville Jaguars (10-5), No. 3 seed
While there could be some shuffling at Nos. 1 and 2, the three seed is set in stone. The Jaguars, thanks to their embarassing 44-33 loss to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday, are locked in at the No. 3 seed. They’re the AFC South champions and will host a Wild Card game against the No. 6 seed, whoever that turns out to be.
Kansas City Chiefs (9-6), No. 4 seed
Because math is a thing, like the Jaguars the Chiefs are playing for absolutely nothing on New Year’s Eve when they travel to Sports Authority Field at Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos. Emotionally, you have to believe that a 10-6 finish, especially after a 5-0 start, is a much stronger position to be in with the playoffs starting than 9-7. At the same time, it would be smart to rest players and protect key guys like Alex Smith and Kareem Hunt.
How bout those back-to-back AFC West Division Champion CHIEEEEEFS! pic.twitter.com/71DbsDenZP
— Kansas City Chiefs (@Chiefs) December 24, 2017
NFC
Philadelphia Eagles (13-2), No. 1 seed
Nick Foles and the Eagles locked up home field Monday night with a 19-10 win over the Oakland Raiders. They host the Dallas Cowboys Sunday in a game where they can, and should, rest every key player since there’s absolutely nothing else to gain and they’ve already lost so much (Carson Wentz, for one).
Minnesota Vikings (12-3), No. 2 seed
The Vikings clinched the two seed with their 16-0 win last Sunday over the Green Bay Packers. They too are playing for nothing when they host the Chicago Bears on New Year’s Eve. I expect Case Keenum to start and play a series or two, but for Teddy Bridgewater to get his first significant NFL action in nearly two years. It’s going to be an emotional scene, but it’s also one the Vikings really need to see. They have a quarterback choice to make this off-season and Bridgewater can stack the deck in his favor with a solid performance against an under-manned Bears squad. Of course, any QB question becomes answered definitively if the Vikings win the Super Bowl. Then it’s Keenum’s team for good.
Sorry Eagles fans…I don't think your team has enough to get through the NFC playoffs and get to the Super Bowl. Give me the Vikings out of the NFC.
— Scott Abraham (@Scott7news) December 26, 2017
Los Angeles Rams (11-4), Currently No. 3 seed
Los Angeles is the NFC West champion for the first time since 2003 and is in the playoffs for the first time since 2004. They’ll host a playoff game, regardless of what happens Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers in the finale. The Rams are currently a -4.5 favorite. I’m not sure how long the starters will play, especially running back Todd Gurley II who may only see a series or two. The truth is, it would be in the Rams’ best interest to lose this game and come into the playoffs as the No. 4 seed. It creates an easier path to the NFC Championship through a Nick Foles-led Eagles team in the Divisional round.
New Orleans Saints (11-4) Currently No. 4 seed
While the Saints hold the four seed as of this writing, they’ve still not clinched the NFC South. They can do that Sunday with a victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have, no matter what, secured a playoff spot and can move up to the three seed with a victory and a Rams loss.
The best interception of the year?! 😱🤔@insidetheNFL #ShotOfTheWeek@shonrp2 @Saints #GoSaints pic.twitter.com/cLiMoK00os
— NFL Films (@NFLFilms) December 25, 2017
Carolina Panthers (11-4), Currently No. 5 seed
The Panthers are in the same boat as the Saints, with the exception of controlling their NFC South title destiny. Carolina is already in the playoffs and can finish no lower than the fifth seed. If they beat the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, they have a chance to be South champions if the Saints lose to the Buccaneers. They can not only win the NFC South, but move up to the three seed with a victory, a Saints loss and a Rams loss.
BATTLES FOR THE OPEN SPOTS
AFC
Baltimore Ravens (9-6), Currently the No. 5 seed
The Ravens control their own destiny Sunday. If they beat the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium, they’re in and remain the fifth seed. If they lose and the Chargers, Bills and Titans all lose too, they’ll still make the playoffs and remain the No. 5. If they lose, but the Titans or Bills still lose, they’re still in the playoffs. If the Ravens lose and the Titans and Bills both win, they’re completely out of the playoffs.
NFL announces our game vs the Bengals Sunday has been flexed from 1 p.m. to 4:25 p.m.
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) December 25, 2017
Tennessee Titans (8-7), Currently the No. 6 seed
Like the Ravens, Tennessee controls its own playoff plans. If they beat the Jaguars this Sunday, they’re in no matter what happens across the AFC. The Titans are currently favored by six points. The Titans miss the playoffs if they lose and the Chargers and Bills both win.
Buffalo Bills (8-7), Currently outside looking in
For the Bills to make it into the tournament, they have to beat the Dolphins in Miami Sunday and the Titans and Chargers both have to lose. They can also make it if they win and the Ravens and Chargers both lose.
McDermott: “I support Terry Pegula and his statements that were made about Kelvin Benjamin’s play. I have spoken with the league about this issue and I’m still at a loss.” pic.twitter.com/6Jnq1Bbqm0
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 26, 2017
Los Angeles Chargers (8-7) Currently outside looking in
The Chargers have the clearest path to upset the apple cart. If they beat the Raiders at the StubHub Center Sunday and the Titans lose to the Jaguars, they’re in as the No. 6 seed no matter what else happens.
NFC
Atlanta Falcons (9-6) Currently the No. 6 seed
The Falcons have their work cut out for them, facing a Panthers team still fighting for a home field playoff game on New Year’s Eve. Still, if they win, they’re in the playoffs and can be no better than the sixth seed.
Playoff chances for teams still in limbo:
Ravens 97%
Falcons 67%
Titans 50%
Chargers 41%
Seahawks 33%
Bills 13%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 26, 2017
Seattle Seahawks (9-6), Currently outside looking in
Seattle has just one shot at nabbing the No. 6 seed. They have to beat the Arizona Cardinals this Sunday and the Falcons have to lose. It’s as simple as that.
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