Industry insiders compiled 27 contract projections for Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander Tarik Skubal, the back-to-back American League Cy Young winner, yielding an average projection of eight years and $355 million, or a $44.6 million average annual value, according to the panelists.
The projections fell into four guarantee tiers: seven estimates up to $300 million, seven between $300 million and $350 million, nine from $351 million to $400 million, and four exceeding $400 million. Sixteen of 27 projections — about 59% — clustered in the $325 million to $400 million range over seven to 10 years, which panelists identified as a likely sweet spot.
Panelists compared potential Skubal benchmarks to three recent large pitcher contracts: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal (the highest guarantee for a pitcher), Max Scherzer’s three-year, $130 million contract (the highest pitcher AAV at $43.3 million) and Gerrit Cole’s nine-year, $324 million agreement. Scott Boras, Skubal’s agent, negotiated the Scherzer and Cole deals, the panelists noted.
On timing, 21 of 27 panelists — 78% — predicted Skubal would sign before the expected Dec. 1 start of a lockout, similar to earlier nine-figure free-agent signings that concluded before the 2021-22 lockout, according to the survey.
Panelists also flagged health and durability as central to how teams will value Skubal. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016 while in college, had flexor tendon surgery in 2022 and a 2026 procedure to remove a loose elbow particle. The panel referenced the uneven results of large pitcher contracts, noting examples such as Corbin Burnes, who signed for $210 million and made 14 starts over the first two years of his deal.
Skubal will be about 30 when he reaches free agency, and his three-year platform entering free agency ranks among the best of prior nine-figure pitchers: his ERA+ trailed only Jacob deGrom in that window and was narrowly behind Kevin Brown, according to the panelists.
