Thursday, April 26, 2018
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Preview 04/16/18

The Philadelphia Phillies will head south to play their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park. Fox Sports Southeast will be showing the matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 7:35 p.m. ET.

Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves Odds

The Braves are 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS. They’ve gained 4.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 6.0 units against the spread (ATS). The Phillies are 9-5 SU and have gone 4-9 ATS. Overall, the team’s accumulated 2.2 units for moneyline bettors this year, but have lost 6.8 units ATS.

Braves games have an over/under record of 5-6-3 thus far in 2018. Philadelphia has an over/under record of 6-6-1.

The Phillies have lost 0.8 units and are 2-8 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has cashed in four of those games, compared to five that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 4.5 units and are 9-3 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to five that went under the total.

The right-handed Aaron Nola (1-0, 1.96 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Phillies. Nola struck out 184 hitters over 168 innings last year (with only 49 walks) and finished the season 12-11 overall with a 3.54 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He made two starts against Atlanta in 2017 and compiled a 2-0 record against the Braves with a 1.20 ERA and 12 strikeouts.

The Braves are going with righty Julio Teheran (0-1, 7.07 ERA) as their starter. Teheran started 32 games last year and finished the season 11-13 overall with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He recorded four starts against Philadelphia a year ago and put up a 1-2 record with a 5.79 ERA and 24 strikeouts.

Atlanta’s pitching staff has allowed 4.0 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The team’s starters have an ERA of 3.86, a WHIP of 1.41 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.5. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 2.88, a WHIP of 1.33 and a K/9 of 9.4. In nine games against NL East foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.91 and the bullpen’s ERA is 1.57.

The Atlanta hitters are putting up 5.9 runs per contest, including 6.0 per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .245/.332/.402 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Braves’ hitters have been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and second baseman Ozzie Albies. Freeman is hitting .320/.493/.560 with 16 hits, 12 RBIs and 12 runs scored, and Albies has produced a line of .313/.333/.703 with 20 hits, five homers, 11 RBIs and 15 runs.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .307/.403/.586, Freeman seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching at home last season, slashing .362/.475/.638 over 160 such plate appearances.

For the visiting squad, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.42 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 8.49 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 3.68, along with a WHIP of 1.23.

The Phillies offense has slashed .230/.325/.395 on its way to 5.6 runs scored per game this season, including 5.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 6.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (5-0 SU).

Left fielder Rhys Hoskins and second baseman Cesar Hernandez have led Philadelphia’s offense. Hoskins is slashing .326/.474/.581 with 14 hits, 11 RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Hernandez (.275/.422/.431) is up to 14 hits, two homers, five RBIs and 11 runs scored.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Phillies, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Notes

The under has cashed in six of Atlanta’s last seven games.

The Phillies have won eight of their last nine games SU.

Philadelphia has recorded 23.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 22.2 over its last five.

The Phillies have hit 13 home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 12 over their last 10.

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