The Denver Nuggets (45-35) and Portland Trail Blazers (48-32) begin their Western Conference schedules at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Monday, April 9, 2018.
Denver is a 4-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218.5 points.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction
The Trail Blazers are hoping for a better outcome after their 116-105 loss to the San Antonio Spurs in their last game. San Antonio’s turnover percentage was their largest strength over Portland. The Spurs had a rate of 7.0 (better than their season average of 11.9), while the Trail Blazers posted a mark of 12.3. Jusuf Nurkic put together a solid performance for Portland, contributing 12 points and 12 rebounds.
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they dismantled the Los Angeles Clippers, 134-115. Denver’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Los Angeles. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.694 (above their season average of 0.536), while the Clippers posted a mark of 0.529. With 23 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic led the way with his eighth triple-double of the season.
Expect this one to be a clinic on boxing out as two of the NBA’s top rebounding teams clash. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 percent), while Portland ranks fifth in defensive rebounding percentage (79.2 percent).
Portland comes into the game with records of 48-32 straight up (SU) and 44-29-7 against the spread (ATS). Trail Blazers games tend to go under the projected point total (55.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Denver owns records of 45-35 SU and 36-41-3 ATS. Contrary to Portland, a little over half of Nuggets games have finished over the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Nurkic (14.4 points, 10.4 rebounds, 1.6 blocks and 1.4 steals) has been fantastic for the Trail Blazers while Jokic (26.6 points, 13.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks) has made great contributions to the Nuggets.
The Nuggets lead the season series against the Trail Blazers two games to one, escaping with a close three-point victory the last time these teams met. Denver covered as a 3-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 205 points, which was 6.5 points below the projected point total of 211.5 points. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Denver’s largest strengths. They had 33 free throw attempts, while Portland had 26. In the victory, Murray led all scorers with 38 points.
Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets Odds Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Trail Blazers, ATS Winner – Trail Blazers, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Portland is 22-15-3 ATS on the road with 23 unders and 17 overs.
At home, Denver is 19-20-1 ATS with 20 overs and 20 unders.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver is 14-2 and Portland is 25-6.
The Nuggets are 39-25 when they score more than 100 points, while the Trail Blazers are 43-18.
Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (25.2) while Portland ranks last (19.6).
The Trail Blazers rank fourth in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.8) while the Nuggets rank 28th (18.7).
Portland ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (42.0) while Denver ranks 26th (47.3).
The Nuggets rank eighth in fast break points per game (13.5) while the Trail Blazers rank 28th (8.2).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.5) while Portland ranks 13th (42.7).
The Trail Blazers average 5.2 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the league. The Nuggets rank 15th in blocks allowed per game (4.8).
Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (10.9) while Portland ranks ninth (11.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Portland is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Trail Blazers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.0, down from 2.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 119.0 points per game (8.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 113.0 points per game (4.2 above their season average).
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