Early-season performance should be judged against the same sample size from history, not a full 16- or 17-game season. DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings were recalculated for every season since 1977 to show how teams stacked up through four games, and those figures provide the framework for the early trends this analysis highlights.
San Francisco sits atop those Week 4 DVOA ratings, posting a historically high mark with only 10 teams since 1977 having been higher through four games. The 49ers have won decisively at times — defeating the Rams in Week 1, dominating the Dolphins in Week 2 and posting a big fourth-quarter performance to beat the Broncos in Week 4 — and logged a 36-30 victory over Arizona in Week 3.
The Arizona game illustrated the efficiency edge behind the 49ers’ numbers: San Francisco outgained the Cardinals 8.7 yards to 4.5 yards per play but ran 31 fewer plays. The DVOA-based view emphasizes efficiency over raw play counts and projects performance more on that basis, according to the DVOA data used in the analysis.
The 49ers’ passing game ranks third-best through four games since 1977, with only the 1998 Broncos and the 1999 Washington team posting better early passing marks. Quarterback Brock Purdy led the league in QBR through that span. Defensively, San Francisco rated fifth in defensive DVOA and ninth in run offense in the same four-game window. The passing performance places the team ahead of several historically notable early-season passing attacks, including the St. Louis Rams’ “Greatest Show on Turf,” the 2013 Broncos and the 1984 Dolphins, according to the DVOA comparison.
Historically, teams that start this hot have had mixed postseason outcomes. The previous top teams by DVOA through four games collectively won nine Super Bowls and lost three, and expanding the top list would include the 1977 Cowboys, 1985 Bears, 1990 Giants, 1998 Broncos and 2009 Saints. Durability remains a concern for San Francisco: the club has been among the league’s most injured teams under coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch and was already missing edge rusher Nick Bosa (calf) and starting defensive tackle Alfred Collins (knee) through the early stretch.
