The Ole Miss Rebels (10-9, 3-4 SEC) look to continue their five-game home winning streak in a matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide (13-6, 5-2 SEC) at The Pavilion at Ole Miss. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 23, 2018, and will air on SEC Network.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 151 points with Ole Miss set as a 1-point favorite.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Ole Miss Rebels ATS Prediction
The last time the Crimson Tide played, they defeated the Mississippi State Bulldogs, 68-62. The Crimson Tide forced 16 turnovers and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 37.5 (above their season average of 28.5). Alabama was lifted by Braxton Key, who was the team’s leading scorer with 16 points on 6-for-13 shooting.
The Rebels were beaten by the Arkansas Razorbacks in their last game, 97-93. Arkansas made good use of their 35 trips to the charity stripe, making 28 of them (80.0 percent). Ole Miss, on the other hand, was 24-29 (82.8 percent). Ole Miss’ Terence Davis had a good performance, leading both teams in scoring with 30 points on 10-for-15 shooting.
Alabama could struggle to create turnovers. Ole Miss ranks 28th in the nation at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.1 percent), while Alabama forces the 158th-most turnovers (19.6 percent). Furthermore, the Crimson Tide, who rank 41st in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.286), will clash against the Rebels, who rank 258th in opponents’ FTA rate (0.260).
Alabama comes into the game with records of 13-6 straight up (SU) and 10-7-1 against the spread (ATS). Vegas tends to set the total high when the Crimson Tide are involved, as 64.7 percent of their games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Ole Miss is 10-9 SU and 8-10 ATS. Games including the Rebels also have a tendency to finish under the total (61.1 percent).
After the Crimson Tide won the lone contest against the Rebels last season, 70-55, these teams will battle for the first time this year. Alabama had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.529 vs. 0.344). Ole Miss, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (16.8 vs. 22.6).
Alabama Crimson Tide at Ole Miss Rebels Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Alabama, ATS Winner – Alabama, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Alabama is 5-4 ATS with 5 overs and 4 unders.
At home, Ole Miss is 6-5 ATS with 6 unders, 4 overs and 1 push.
Alabama ranks 50th in assists allowed per game (11.6) while Ole Miss ranks 233rd (16.2).
The Rebels rank 44th in three pointers attempted per game (25.6) while the Crimson Tide rank 217th (19.2).
Alabama averages 37.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 95th in the nation. Ole Miss ranks 223rd in rebounds allowed per game (37.9).
The Crimson Tide average 6.3 blocks per game, which ranks seventh in the nation. The Rebels rank 71st in blocks allowed per game (3.2).
Ole Miss ranks 99th in steals per game (6.6) while Alabama ranks 124th in steals allowed per game (6.6).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Alabama is 4-1 ATS with 5 unders.
Ole Miss is 4-1 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Crimson Tide’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.8, down from 5.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Rebels have scored an average of 74.8 points per game (4.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 76.6 points per game (0.7 above their season average).
