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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Free Pick 09/28/18

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks will head west to PETCO Park to take on their divisional foe San Diego Padres. The game gets underway 10:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Arizona will be airing the matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Odds

Arizona (-145) is the favorite against San Diego (+135) and oddsmakers have set the Over/Under for this night game at seven runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at -125 for the over and +105 for the under. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at Diamondbacks -1.5 runs (+100) and Padres +1.5 runs (-120).

The Padres are 64-95 straight up (SU) and 76-83 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 12.6 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 28.9 units (ATS). The Diamondbacks are 81-78 SU and have gone 78-81 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 9.8 units for moneyline gamblers, but have gained 0.8 units ATS.

Padres games have an over/under record of 77-76-6 in 2018. The Diamondbacks have been a decent under bet with a total record of 73-80-6.

Left-hander Patrick Corbin will get the nod for the visiting Diamondbacks. Corbin is 11-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 242 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with 19 strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against San Diego this year (two starts).

The Padres will put the ball in the hands of Eric Lauer (6-7, 4.60 ERA), who’s got 94 strikeouts and 45 walks as well as a 1.56 WHIP. Lauer is 1-0 with two strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA in one start against Arizona this year.

Arizona’s pitchers have allowed 4.0 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.80 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 9.30 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 3.62, along with a K-per-9 of 8.22.

The Diamondbacks offense has slashed .236/.313/.399 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

First baseman Paul Goldschmidt and left fielder David Peralta have led Arizona’s offense. Goldschmidt is slashing .291/.390/.538 with 33 home runs, 83 RBIs and 95 runs scored, while Peralta has a .296 average with 30 homers, 87 RBIs and 75 runs scored.

For the home team, San Diego’s pitching staff has yielded 4.8 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 5.14, a WHIP of 1.46 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.4. The bullpen has a 3.58 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 10.2 K/9. In 73 games against divisional foes, Padres starters have an ERA of 5.47 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.46.

The San Diego hitters have put up 3.8 runs per contest, including 3.6 per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .243/.282/.362 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

The Padres’ batters have been led by first baseman Eric Hosmer and shortstop Freddy Galvis. Hosmer is slashing .249/.316/.392 with 17 home runs, 67 RBIs and 71 runs scored, while Galvis has produced a line of .247/.300/.382 with 13 homers, 66 RBIs and 61 runs scored.

The Padres have lost 15.8 units and are 20-34 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 31 of those games, as opposed to 21 that’ve gone under against lefties.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Diamondbacks, ATS Winner – Diamondbacks, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The over has cashed in four of San Diego’s last seven games.

San Diego has posted 21.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 20.8 over its last five.

The Diamondbacks have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Padres have hit 11 over their last 10.

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Written by GMS Previews

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