If there was any real drama surrounding Hue Jackson’s starting quarterback decision, that all ended early Monday morning. The Cleveland Browns will officially welcome No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield to the starting lineup for Sunday’s game against the Oakland Raiders.
Mayfield took over for an injured and floundering Tyrod Taylor last Thursday night against the New York Jets, leading a second-half come-from-behind victory from a 17-0 deficit. He completed his first three NFL passes for 47 yards and finished 17-of-23 for 201 yards.
As impressive as Mayfield played (and his stat line looked), history is against him when it comes to his first, official NFL start. The last No. 1 quarterback to win his first start was David Carr back in 2002, which also happened to be the first game in franchise history for the Houston Texans. Carr led the expansion team to a 19-10 victory over their cross-state rival, the Dallas Cowboys. They wouldn’t pick up another victory until Halloween weekend.
.@bakermayfield has been named our starting QB 🎯 pic.twitter.com/xqn17Df15j
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 24, 2018
The fact is, since the 1970 merger, only four No. 1 picks who were quarterbacks pocketed a victory in their first start and John Elway’s shouldn’t count since he opened the game 1-for-8 in 1983 and was benched for Steve DeBerg. Elway posted a passer rating of 0.0, which, of course, means he was a total bust and a bum. What ever happened to that loser?
The other guys who won games are Michael Vick and Jim Plunkett. There’s really no indication of future success there. Elway had the worst game as a first start and ended up with the best career. Plunkett is a Hall of Famer, but that’s because of what he did with the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders later in his career. For the team that drafted him No. 1 overall, the Boston/New England Patriots, he was considered kind of a bust. Carr was a bust and Vick had an up-and-down career.
If you want to factor in your future betting prospects with Mayfield, here’s some historic info for you to factor in. Only three rookie No. 1 overall quarterbacks posted a winning record against the spread in their first season — Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Sam Bradford. Bradford was 10-6 against the spread back in 2010 and Luck went 11-5 both straight up and against the spread in 2012. Newton was 9-7 against the spread in 2011.
The last two No. 1 overall picks were not nearly as fortunate. Jameis Winston went 7-9 against the spread in 2015 and Jared Goff went 0-7 straight up and against the spread in 2016.
History of No. 1 pick quarterbacks in their first start:
The Browns have opened as a +2.5 underdog at Oakland next Sunday via BetDSI and that’s a pretty friendly line. Being a home team alone is worth three points, so the fact that the Raiders are hosting and aren’t at least getting that shows plenty of respect for the team from Cleveland and their rookie signal caller.
Hue Jackson stating that the move to Mayfield is not for one game: "He’s the starting quarterback of this football team. We know it’s a long season, all kind of things can happen. Baker Mayfield is the starting quarterback of this team." https://t.co/IwPCFJ2JHJ
— PatMcManamon (@PatMcManamon) September 24, 2018
Correlating and interesting stats surfaced when we continued researching rookie quarterbacks and their performances as starters.
Record of No. 1 pick quarterbacks in their rookie seasons as starters:
What do I expect from Mayfield in his first start? Oakland’s defense hasn’t stopped much of anybody, but they’ve also played three good teams — the Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins. I expect Mayfield to play well, but asking him to pick up his first victory on the road, on the West Coast, against a Raiders team (and head coach Jon Gruden) looking for its first victory of the season is too tall of an order.
If I’m picking this game today, I say the Raiders win and cover, with Mayfield joining a very long list of good No. 1 overall quarterbacks who lost their first NFL start.
