Underdogs are tearing through the NFL as we all, books and handicappers alike, flail through the beginning of the 2018-19 NFL season. In Week 2, dogs were 10-6 against the spread. They followed that with a 9-7 Week 3. Seeing as how you could have made solid cash just betting dogs all down the line, this column becomes more important than ever.
So, for your entertainment and money-making pleasure once again, I present to you the best NFL underdog pick for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-3)
Just like everyone else on planet earth, I switched off Monday night’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the third quarter. There was no way Tampa Bay could come back from being down 33-13. Not only had Ryan Fitzpatrick’s glass slipper broken, but there would be no more fun dress up games in the postgame press conference. No, Ryan Fitzpatrick would have the inglorious distinction of standing at that podium dressed as Ryan Fitzpatrick. Nothing could have been worse.
The Buccaneers have a decision to make for Week 4. 🤔 pic.twitter.com/GOKX42jp3a
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 25, 2018
Only, something happened in the fourth quarter. Fitzpatrick rediscovered his magic. I like to think it was because he’d figuratively, if not literally, surrendered the starting job back to Jameis Winston (who will be off his suspension this week) with his first half performance. Headed back to the bench, the pressure was off and Fitzpatrick unleashed his third consecutive 400-yard passing performance. Tampa still lost, but Fitzpatrick will likely keep his job for another week.
Meanwhile, Bears head coach Matt Nagy seems deathly afraid of his own quarterback. If I’m picking this game today, I go with the Bucs to win outright.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7)
Here’s the question you must ask yourself — are the Patriots done? Because they sure look done, but we’ve been through this dance before and all ate it when we’ve picked against them. The Dolphins are playing way better and, if this was any other team, you might go ahead and predict a changing of the guard. But New England always comes back.
The last time the Patriots were two games out of the AFC East lead?
Week 8 of the 2002 season. pic.twitter.com/zv0u24gFvh
— ESPN (@espn) September 25, 2018
Still, with the way the Pats have been playing on defense, that seven points is a lot to consider. I wouldn’t pick New England to lose this game today, but to cover a touchdown and extra point? I’m not so sure.
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+3.5)
At 1-2, the Giants haven’t played bad to open the season. They’ve lost to good (or at least decent) teams in the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Dallas Cowboys. The Saints, on the other hand, nearly got beat by the Cleveland Browns and needed an otherworldly performance from quarterback Drew Brees just to stay in the game against the Buccaneers in Week 1.
WR2's vs. the Saints.
Week 1 – DeSean Jackson: 146 yards 2 TD
Week 2- Antonio Callaway: 81 yards 1 TD
Week 3 – Calvin Ridley: 146 yards 3 TD
Fire up: #Giants Sterling Shepard pic.twitter.com/ruPyZIRgPq
— Gridiron Experts (@GridironExperts) September 25, 2018
The Saints defense can’t stop anyone. The Giants defense is the best unit New Orleans has faced all season. Like the Bucs and Bears, I say the dog here wins outright.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5)
Lastly, we come to everyone’s favorite offense with the Kansas City Chiefs. They are, rightly, favored against the Broncos here, but 4.5 points is a lot. As good as the Chiefs have looked, they aren’t going undefeated and Denver’s pass rush and corners are exactly the kind of team that can finally slow Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid down.
Ground control.
Through three weeks, we’ve held our opponents to an average of 77.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the NFL. pic.twitter.com/Kk9I8ncsq5
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) September 25, 2018
Mile High is a tough place to play, especially for speed offenses. Kansas City, like New Orleans, hasn’t stopped a team on defense this calendar year. Denver has the weapons to keep this one close, if not pull the upset.
