The Milwaukee Bucks (24-22) square off against the Brooklyn Nets (18-30) at BMO Harris Bradley Center. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, January 26, 2018, and will air on YES Network.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 213.5 points with Milwaukee opening as a 6-point favorite.
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Prediction
The Nets are trying to rebound after their 109-108 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last matchup. Oklahoma City’s 3.6 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Brooklyn, who had a rate of 11.8. The Thunder’s mark was better than their season average of 12.5. Brooklyn’s Jarrett Allen played well, finishing with 12 points and 11 rebounds.
In the Bucks’ last game, they beat the Phoenix Suns, 109-105. The Bucks knocked down 28 of their 37 free throws (75.7 percent), while the Suns had a turnover percentage of 19.3 (above their season average of 13.4). Khris Middleton was the game’s high scorer with 35 points on 13-for-19 shooting.
Brooklyn could have a tough time creating turnovers. Milwaukee ranks seventh in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.5 percent), while Brooklyn forces the fewest turnovers (12.1 percent). Opposite paces will be on display in this meeting. The fast-paced Nets rank fifth in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Bucks rank 27th.
Although Brooklyn has trouble winning games straight up (18-30 SU), they have an excellent record against the spread (30-17-1). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when setting the total of Nets games, with 26 unders compared to 22 overs.
Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 24-22 SU and 19-22-5 ATS. Bucks games have a tendency to go over the total (56.5 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. DeMarre Carroll (17.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals) has been fantastic for the Nets while Middleton (18.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.6 steals) has made solid contributions to the Bucks.
After the Bucks won all four matchups against the Nets last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, Milwaukee won 129-125. The Bucks had a much better turnover percentage (8.9 vs. 14.8) and had a better free throw rate (0.250 vs. 0.216).
Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Brooklyn is 17-8 ATS on the road with 13 unders and 12 overs.
At home, Milwaukee is 8-13-3 ATS with 13 overs, 10 unders and 1 push.
Brooklyn is 11-1 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Milwaukee is 9-3.
When scoring over 100 points, the Nets are 14-21 and the Bucks are 20-12.
Brooklyn ranks fourth in rebounds per game (45.6) while Milwaukee ranks last (38.4).
The Bucks rank fifth in steals per game (8.6) while the Nets rank last (6.1).
Milwaukee ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.0) while Brooklyn ranks 28th (5.6).
The Nets rank second in three pointers attempted per game (34.1) while the Bucks rank 27th (24.4).
Milwaukee ranks eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.7) while Brooklyn ranks 27th (14.5).
The Nets rank 15th in second chance points per game (12.2) while the Bucks rank 29th (9.8).
Milwaukee averages 46.9 points in the paint per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Brooklyn ranks 18th in points allowed in the paint per game (45.1).
The Bucks rank first in fast break points allowed per game (8.2) while the Nets rank 10th (10.7).
Brooklyn averages 22.4 assists per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Milwaukee ranks 15th in assists allowed per game (23.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Brooklyn is 3-1-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Nets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.8, down from 2.9 for the season.
During their last five games, the Bucks have scored an average of 97.4 points per game (7.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.8 points per game (2.3 below their season average).
