The Chicago Cubs are searching for their fourth consecutive win as they play host to the Cincinnati Reds at Wrigley Field. The action gets underway at 2:20 p.m. ET and fans can catch the game on WLS and FSOH.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Odds
The Cubs are 87-61 straight up (SU) and 73-74 against the spread (ATS). The team hasn’t strayed too far from expectations, gaining 2.9 units for moneyline bettors while earning 0.9 units (ATS). Chicago has covered the spread only once in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Reds are 63-86 SU and have gone 84-64 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 9.0 units for moneyline gamblers, but have gained 6.5 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.
Chicago games have an over/under record of 65-79-3 in 2018. Reds games have gone over 76 times, gone under 67 times and pushed on five occasions.
Right-hander Luis Castillo is projected to start for Cincinnati. Castillo (9-12, 4.66 ERA) has recorded 158 strikeouts in 154.2 innings so far. He’s 1-1 with 14 strikeouts and a 6.00 ERA against Chicago this year (four starts).
The Cubs are handing the ball to lefty Jose Quintana (13-9, 3.97 ERA), who’s got 135 strikeouts and 65 walks, as well as a WHIP of 1.32. Quintana is 2-1 with 12 strikeouts and a 3.18 ERA over three starts against Cincinnati this year.
As a unit, Chicago’s pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall this year. Its starters have a 3.89 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. In 68 games against divisional opponents, Cubs starters have an ERA of 3.35 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.78.
The Chicago offense is putting up 4.7 runs per outing, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 2.4 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .192/.267/.269 over its last five games and is 4-1 SU during that span.
Second baseman Javier Baez and first baseman Anthony Rizzo have led the Cubs’ hitters this year. Baez is slashing .295/.329/.564 with 31 home runs, 103 RBIs, 93 runs and 21 stolen bases, while Rizzo is hitting .276 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs and 66 runs.
For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.12 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and 7.85 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.21, along with a K/9 of 7.94.
The Reds offense has slashed .258/.335/.408 on its way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s hitters. Gennett is hitting .320/.365/.502 with 22 home runs, 88 RBIs and 84 runs scored, while Peraza is hitting .294/.333/.421 with 12 homers, 54 RBIs, 82 runs and 23 steals.
The Reds have gained 6.0 units and are 27-15 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 23 of those games, as opposed to 18 that’ve hit the under in such games. On the other hand, the Cubs have netted 1.1 units and are 57-59 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 63 that’ve gone under.
Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Cubs, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Cincinnati has logged 14 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Chicago has eight XBH over its last five.
The Reds have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Cubs have hit five over their last 10.
Chicago has averaged 18.2 runs + hits + errors over its last 10 outings and 14.4 over its last five.
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