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College Basketball: Final Four Favorites

The college basketball season moves into the middle of January, and conference play begins to pick up steam. Various championship contenders in various regions of the country are jockeying not just for positioning at the top of their respective conference standings, but for NCAA Tournament seeds. The attention and pressure on these teams is not nearly as intense as it will be in late February or early March, but every game matters in terms of building the right resume which will mean a friendly bracket path on Selection Sunday. If four teams are favorites for the Final Four, here they are:

Villanova Wildcats

The defending champions have earned the benefit of the doubt not just because they are defending champions, but because they have exhibited a mixture of great skill and great work habits. It doesn’t seem that Villanova has skated by or gotten lucky. It has earned a lot of solid wins, multiple ones coming on the road (Purdue and Creighton). The Wildcats are good at getting loose balls and rebounds, even though their collection of big men has been depleted by both graduation and suspensions. Villanova is highly competent on offense and defense. It doesn’t make many mistakes. It owns multiple quality three-point shooters, meaning that defenses can’t easily focus on one player. Josh Hart is the best, but plenty of his teammates can burn opponents as well. Villanova’s one loss was a rugged road game at Butler on a night when the Wildcats missed lots of makeable shots. If they shoot at a reasonably high percentage, the Wildcats should be the favorite to win every game they play.

Kansas Jayhawks

The annual parade of Big 12 championships and top-two NCAA Tournament seeds appears likely to continue. Kansas is taking care of Big 12 road games thus far, having won a few of them without any stumbles. The Jayhawks lost to Indiana in the season opener but have been steady ever since. The big reason Kansas can feel confident about its March prospects this season is that it has the best 1-2 punch in the backcourt of any team in the country. Frank Mason and Devonte Graham are tenacious defenders, capable scorers and veteran team leaders. They should be trusted with the ball in their hands, and they can give a lot of direction to their frontcourt teammates. Kansas has been younger in the backcourt in previous years and not made the Final Four. This change could help the Jayhawks cross the threshold.

Louisville Cardinals

The Cardinals play classic Rick Pitino defense, but this season, they have demonstrated more of an ability to shoot well, which makes Louisville a national title contender. Donovan Mitchell is a player who has cultivated his three-point shot, making himself a formidable offensive player. If he can continue on this path and if Quentin Snider can reliably attack the basket to get defenders on their heels, the Cardinals’ Final Four prospects will look bright.

The Cardinals are coming off a particularly strong effort on Saturday when they handled the Duke Blue Devils. They were the No. 14 team in the country and Duke was No. 7, but that’s going to change in the next update of the Associated Press Top 25. The Cardinals flexed their muscle at the offensive end in this game, scoring an impressive 44 points on the Duke defense in the second half of the game.

Oregon Ducks

The Ducks and UCLA will compete with each other for the right to be seen as the favorite to make the Final Four from the Pac-12 and the Western part of the United States. The two teams locked up in an epic duel in late December, with Oregon making a late comeback to win, 89-87. The basic argument to make for Oregon is that if Dillon Brooks is on the court and healthy, the Ducks are an excellent team. They were not as good in November and early December when Brooks was either injured (and out of the lineup) or playing at well below 100 percent. As long as Brooks is at full strength, this team has everything it needs to make the Final Four.

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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