Every autumn, Manchester United supporters and observers brace for another managerial change. The article traces a pattern of firings around the holiday season: Ruben Amorim lost his job last January; Erik ten Hag was sacked two years ago right before Halloween; Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was dismissed just before Thanksgiving; and Jose Mourinho was relieved of his duties a little over a week before Christmas. It adds that Michael Carrick now appears likely to become the latest managerial casualty and that United sit above the relegation zone only on goal differential.
The club has not won the Premier League in 14 seasons. Whoever replaces Carrick would be the ninth coach since Sir Alex Ferguson to attempt the simple task of meeting Manchester United’s lofty expectations for more than a single season, the article notes, raising the broader question of whether any manager could have succeeded at Old Trafford in that span.
To consider what a manager is worth, the piece borrows a player-value framework. Arsenal won the Premier League last season with 85 points, which averaged about 7.7 points per starting player if value were shared evenly. Using the relegation cutoff — West Ham were relegated with 39 points — the calculation implies an average Arsenal player supplied roughly five more points across a season than a relegation-level player.
The article acknowledges that the simplified model has limits: players differ in quality, positions vary in value, and few players log every minute. It cites David Raya playing 97.3 percent of league minutes last season and Declan Rice leading outfield Gunners with 90.5 percent of minutes as illustrative caveats. Even so, it suggests the best players on the best teams are worth about seven points over a relegation-level player, with generational stars possibly adding around ten.
For managerial value, the article cites Liverpool’s former director of research Ian Graham and his book How to Win the Premier League, which argues that a manager’s contribution is comparable to that of a good player and that top managers receive wages similar to the best players. The piece leaves open the question of who, if anyone, represented the best managerial hire available to Manchester United across the last 14 seasons.
