The 2026-27 NBA season began with expectations of unusual parity as several former rebuilding clubs improved and new draft-lottery rules incentivized winning. Still, three rosters — the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and defending champion New York Knicks — stood above the field after last season, having returned 14 of their combined 15 starters and finishing atop the standings.
That narrative shifted less than two weeks into the season as a wave of injuries to high-profile players altered the league’s most important races. Oklahoma City opened with 12-point wins over the Spurs and Nuggets but then lost Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace to potentially season-ending injuries in the same game. Alex Caruso sprained his right ankle the next night, and Chet Holmgren suffered a patellar tendon tear in his right knee that will keep him out at least two months.
The Thunder have played recent games without four of their top six players, with results to match: a 24-point loss in Dallas followed by a 21-point loss in Houston, and they were outscored in all eight quarters across those two defeats. The team would be expected to improve once Caruso and Holmgren return, but Oklahoma City faces major perimeter concerns without Williams and Wallace and appears a long way from meaningful contention given the extent of its injuries.
New York and San Antonio have shown early inconsistencies as well. The Knicks are 2-4 and required two late comebacks against Detroit and Chicago to record those wins. The Spurs began 4-2 but have looked out of sync against the tougher competition they’ve faced, needing overtime to get past an injury-ravaged Utah Jazz.
Preseason projections from ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gave the Thunder and Spurs a combined 50 percent chance to win the title and the Knicks 8 percent, roughly a three-fifths probability for the trio. According to ESPN’s BPI, those combined odds have since dropped to 38 percent, an assessment that assumes Wallace and Holmgren return before the playoffs. Meanwhile, a set of second-tier contenders has started hot: the Rockets are 5-1 with wins over Oklahoma City and San Antonio, and the 76ers, Pistons and Celtics began a combined 16-3 — fewer combined losses than the Knicks have accrued by themselves.
