The 2026 NFL season has reinforced unpredictable results, with the Las Vegas Raiders opening the year at 150-1 (0.66% implied) to win the Super Bowl and sitting 3-0 with an 11.3-point average victory margin, while the Houston Texans began at 18-1 (5.3%) and have lost three straight as their defense has allowed the 14th-most points (25.0 per game), according to ESPN.
Fantasy football has reflected that volatility. Brock Purdy, a typical 10th-round preseason selection, is the No. 4 overall scorer and averages just 4.3 fewer fantasy points per game than Josh Allen. Omarion Hampton, selected around No. 15 in ADP, has averaged 10.5 fantasy points and sits outside the top 20 among running backs, according to ESPN.
Knockout-league results in Week 3 underlined the parity. For the first time this season no player appeared on at least 15% of eliminated teams, and it was the first week in which players who scored more than 10 fantasy points still showed up on 10% or more of knocked-out rosters — Josh Allen (17.46 points, 10.4% knocked out) and Jalen Hurts (12.62, 10.1%) — according to ESPN.
Poor quarterback play has been a recurring factor. Drake Maye has yet to reach 10 fantasy points in a game and is among four players — A.J. Brown, Kenny Gainwell and Kyle Pitts Sr. are the others — who have been on at least 8% of knocked-out teams through three weeks. Justin Herbert has averaged 11.3 fantasy points and ranks 26th at the position, and his teams were knocked out in 9.2% of leagues in Week 2 and 7.2% in Week 3. Injuries to Jayden Daniels (10.6%), Caleb Williams (8.0%) and Baker Mayfield (5.9%) also hurt managers, according to ESPN.
ESPN highlights Josh Allen as the top pickup after Week 3. Allen is listed as QB3 (13th overall) and appeared on 10.4% of knocked-out teams; he has been the No. 1 fantasy quarterback in multiple seasons and, despite a two-interception, 17.46-point Week 3, remains a high-value target. Allen’s next two matchups are New England (home) and the Los Angeles Rams (road), with a Week 7 bye. ESPN recommends bidding 18–33% of a full-season FAB budget to acquire him, noting a need for a complementary quarterback for the upcoming bye.
