It will be a battle between SEC opponents when the No. 18 Kentucky Wildcats (14-5, 4-3 SEC) welcome the Mississippi State Bulldogs (14-5, 2-4 SEC) to Rupp Arena. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 23, 2018, and will air on ESPN.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 140 points with Kentucky set as an 8.5-point favorite.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats Free Prediction
In the Bulldogs’ last contest, they were defeated by the Alabama Crimson Tide, 68-62. Alabama’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide had a rate of 13.6 (better than their season average of 17.8), while the Bulldogs posted a mark of 20.2 (above their season average of 16.6). Mississippi State’s Aric Holman had a solid game, recording 11 points and 10 rebounds.
The Wildcats lost a tough one against the Florida Gators in their last game, 66-64. Florida’s 8.3 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Kentucky, who had a mark of 19.5. The Gators’ mark was better than their season average of 12.2. With 10 points on 4-for-12 shooting, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led Kentucky in scoring.
A focal point for the Kentucky offense is getting to the free throw line. The Wildcats rank 27th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.293), but Mississippi State is among the best in the NCAA at keeping opponents away from the charity stripe (ranking 13th by yielding a FTA rate of 0.171).
Mississippi State is 14-5 straight up (SU), but they are just 4-10 against the spread (ATS). Bulldogs games have a tendency to go under the total (71.4 percent).
Kentucky has a superb 14-5 SU record, but they have a hard time covering the spread (7-11-1 ATS). Vegas is exceedingly accurate when predicting totals of Wildcats games, with an even split between overs and unders.
After the Wildcats won the sole game against the Bulldogs last season, 88-81, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Wildcats had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (36.1 vs. 26.5) and had a better turnover percentage (17.5 vs. 21.7).
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Kentucky, ATS Winner – Mississippi State, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Mississippi State is 0-5 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Kentucky is 4-8 ATS at home with 6 overs and 5 unders.
Mississippi State ranks 120th in three pointers attempted per game (22.5) while Kentucky ranks 279th (14.3).
The Bulldogs rank 41st in assists allowed per game (11.5) while the Wildcats rank 137th (13.5).
Kentucky averages 38.7 rebounds per game, which ranks 48th in the nation. Mississippi State ranks 135th in rebounds allowed per game (34.8).
The Bulldogs average 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks 18th in the NCAA. The Wildcats rank 82nd in blocks allowed per game (3.3).
Mississippi State ranks 50th in steals allowed per game (5.5) while Kentucky ranks 104th (6.3).
Betting Trends:
In their last five games, Mississippi State is 1-4 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Kentucky is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Bulldogs have been outscored by an average of 3.8 points in their last five games. For the season, Mississippi State has defeated opponents by an average of 9.7 points.
During their last five games, the Wildcats have scored an average of 69.0 points per game (8.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 71.6 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
