In one of the two largest mismatches of the first day of the tournament, the #2 Arizona Wildcats will play the Big Sky champion the #15 North Dakota Fighting Hawks, who should pose no threat to one of the Final Four contenders.
Place: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Date/Time: Thursday March 16th, 2017. 09:50 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#2 Arizona Wildcats vs. #15 North Dakota Fighting Hawks
LINE: Arizona -16.5 (-106)
Total: 148.5 points (-103 over; -110 under)
High expectations for the Wildcats
The #2 Arizona Wildcats (30-4) endured a turbulent season, with some of their top players injured and suspended. Now with the full roster, the Wildcats won 9 out of their last 10 games and were even hoping that this streak results in the top seed. Sophomore forward Allonzo Trier is starting to play up to his potential after a long suspension to open the season – he’s scored 19-plus points in seven straight games – while one of the nation’s most balanced starting units surrounds him. With an experienced coach Sean Miller who led them to three Elite Eight appearances in five years, they have as good of chance to have a long tournament as anybody.
The Arizona Wildcats are a very athletic and versatile team. On top of Trier’s abilities, they have another surefire NBA lottery pick in seven-foot Lauri Markkanen. He can extend the floor with prolific outside shooting (43%). Another 4 players score more than 9 points a game. The Wildcats average a solid 76.3 points for the season average. Their offense is above average, but the defense is even better. They’ve allowed only .415 shooting percentage to their opponents and .306 from the deep. In total, they allow 65.4 points a game and their +11 margin is 23rd nationally. They are also a top 20 team in rebounding margin.
The Fighting Hawks show resiliency
This is the first NCAA Tournament appearance for the North Dakota Fighting Hawks (22-9). They have defeated Webber State with 93-89 in the conference final after a thrilling overtime game where they overcame the 11-point second half deficit. It’s not uncommon for them to have an up-and-down game as they play to score more points than their opponents, and they hope this translates to a good performance in Utah.
It’s going to be a tough task for the Fighting Hawks to take down the Wildcats, but a fast-paced attack led by a pair of high-scoring guards, Quinton Hooker and Geno Crandall, can keep them in a lot of games. For the season, they are averaging 80.5 points per game, a top 30 achievement in the NCAA, but they also allow a lot of points – 72.8. Their biggest weakness is their rebounding. Playing small (no player in the common rotation is taller than 6-8) allows them to push the tempo and put points up in a hurry, but if the shots aren’t falling, the rebound mismatch against the Wildcats can bury their chances.
#2 Arizona Wildcats vs. #15 North Dakota Fighting Hawks Game Trends & Prediction
The Wildcats have gone 18-14-2 ATS and 16-17-1 against the O/U. The PAC-12 champions covered in their last 4 games, with the last three going over the projected totals line. Furthermore, they enter the tournament on a high note with back-to-back wins against UCLA and Oregon, one of the nation’s top teams.
North Dakota played much weaker opposition, but are also in the peak of their form, winning 9 out of their last 10 games, and failing to cover only twice. For the season, they’ve gone 17-9-2 against the spread and 15-12-1 against the over/under. Their games often feature lines higher than 150 points and there are no recent trends here.
Yes, the Fighting Hawks can be dangerous with their scoring capabilities, but don’t read too much into it, as they faced much weaker opposition and whole conference tendency was to play for an extra point. The Wildcats bowed out in the first round last year and will make sure they play with effort. Arizona should coast to a sure win, but there’s not much value in taking them due to a fairly set handicap. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wildcats cover, but I’d rather pass on this one. As for the total points, you should take the overs. This has all writings of a high tempo, exciting game to cap the first day in Salt Lake City.
My Pick: Pass
Total: Over 148.5 points (-103)
