The New York Mets are ready to play their divisional nemesis Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. SportsNet New York is in line to televise the matchup and the game will get underway at 7:05 p.m. ET.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Odds
Vegas has listed New York (+170) as the underdog to Philadelphia (-180). Bettors are able to wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at even money (+100) for over 7.5 runs and -120 for under 7.5. The game’s current runline odds sit at -130 for picking the Mets +1.5 runs and +110 for the Phillies -1.5.
The Phillies are 76-73 straight up (SU) and 68-80 against the spread (ATS). The team’s lost 1.9 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 21.9 units (ATS). Philadelphia has covered the spread just once in its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven. The Mets have gone 70-80 SU this year and are 74-74 ATS. In total, the team’s lost 12.2 units for moneyline bettors and 6.8 units ATS. New York has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Phillies games have a 67-75-6 over/under record in 2018. Mets games have gone under 74 times, gone over 65 times and pushed on nine occasions.
Steven Matz is getting the nod for the visiting Mets. The left-handed Matz (5-11, 4.18 ERA) has racked up 136 strikeouts in 140 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with 13 strikeouts and a 5.25 ERA against Philadelphia this year (three starts).
The Phillies will turn to righty Aaron Nola (16-5, 2.42 ERA), who has 201 strikeouts and 51 walks as well as a WHIP of 0.97. Nola is 4-0 with 37 strikeouts and a 1.97 ERA across five starts against New York this year.
New York’s pitching staff allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.71 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 9.15 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.93, along with a WHIP of 1.20.
The Mets offense has slashed .237/.315/.394 on its way to 4.3 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.3 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).
New York’s offense has been powered by shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto, who have combined to swat 35 home runs. The speedy Rosario is slashing .258/.297/.394 with nine home runs, 49 RBIs, 72 runs and 19 steals, while Conforto (.242/.345/.443) has produced 26 homers, 75 RBIs and 72 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Philadelphia’s pitchers have yielded 4.4 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has a 4.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.98 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 67 games against NL East opponents, Phillies starters have an ERA of 4.10 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.49.
Philadelphia’s offense has produced 4.3 runs per contest, including 4.3 per game against divisional foes and 5.6 per game over its last five. The team has hit .235/.310/.440 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Phillies’ hitters have been led by second baseman Cesar Hernandez and right fielder Odubel Herrera. Hernandez is hitting .255/.357/.363 with 13 home runs, 54 RBIs, 86 runs and 18 steals, while Herrera’s line is .255/.313/.423 with 21 homers, 65 RBIs and 63 runs.
The Mets have lost 5.1 units and are 54-53 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 49 of those games, compared to 52 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Phillies have netted 2.8 units and are 16-20 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 18 of those games, as opposed to 16 which went under the total.
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Phillies, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The under has cashed in only two of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
New York has posted 23.0 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 21.6 over its last five.
The Mets have hit 18 home runs in their last 10 games. The Phillies have hit 14 over their last 10.
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