We wrap up the top half of the NFL quarterback list today and probably land on a few more familiar names for the casual college football fan. There might be a surprise here, but, as always, I’ll explain my reasoning as I go.
For a detailed explanation of how I pick quarterbacks, read my pre-draft preamble by clicking here and here. Part one of my NFL Draft Quarterback rankings is here and part two is here.
Before I continue, a quick recap. 10. C.J. Beathard, Iowa, 9. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech, 8. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh and 7. Davis Webb, California.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=brc8kIZXjvs&t=167s
6. Chad Kelly, Ole Miss. 6-2, 224 pounds
62.5 completion percentage, 2,758 yards, 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 332 rushing yards, five rushing TDs
Chad Kelly was on a lot of boards as a potential first rounder in the offseason. A knee injury and down year for Ole Miss. The Rebels finished 5-7 and missed out on a bowl invite, but two of those losses came after Kelly was lost for the season with an torn ACL. That still makes Kelly 5-5 as a starter in 2016.
If you go back to the 2015 season, Kelly was incredible, beating Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, LSU and Mississippi State. They also dominated Oklahoma State in the Sugar Bowl. He threw for over 4,000 yards and 31 touchdowns with only 13 picks against SEC opponents and future NFL stars. You can see why everyone was so high on Kelly and, I have think, glad to see him drop off in 2016. Because the Chad-meister comes with some hard choices for any NFL team that picks him.
First and foremost, he’s apparently a prick. It’s what got him kicked off Clemson’s team in 2012 and led to the emergence of DeShaun Watson. Kelly bounced back at East Mississippi Community College and led them to a NJCAA National Title before landing at Ole Miss. Once with the Rebels he was arrested once, got kicked out of a high school football game for trying to storm the field and has a photo of him floating around smoking a doob. All that led to a “disinvitation” from the NFL combine. Kelly will only get to show off on his pro day and in private workouts.
But that’s the thing. Kelly has a lot he can show off. He’s got an NFL arm and can make the downfield, front-shoulder throw as good as anybody in the business. He’s a killer too, always going for the jugular on pass plays, looking deep downfield. He’s accurate and moves forward in the pocket, which you know I like if you’ve read any of my pre-draft writing.
His five losses this year are tough, but he played at an insane level in some of those games. In the Reb’s 48-43 loss to Alabama, Kelly threw for 421 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions.
In the 34-30 loss to then No. 22-ranked Arkansas, Kelly led two scoring drives in the fourth quarter to give Ole Miss a 30-27 lead, only to see his defense surrender it in the final three minutes.
In addition to all that, he shares DNA with his uncle Jim Kelly, who is in the Hall of Fame and led the Buffalo Bills to four consecutive Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Some team is rolling the dice on Kelly on day two.
Ideal situation: Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, Washington Redskins
5. DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame, 6-5, 220 pounds
58.7 completion percentage, 2,925 yards, 26 touchdowns, nine interceptions, 472 rushing yards, eight rushing TDs
Seeing Kizer atop so many draft boards and quarterback lists is the most head-scratching part of this entire process. These are the same experts who picked Jared Goff as the top QB last year and had Dak Prescott ranked anywhere from 5th to 10th. And I dare anyone to look at Kizer’s highlight tape and Prescott’s senior year at Mississippi State and pretend the two men deserve to be mentioned in the same breath. It’s ridiculous.
First off, let’s talk about the good things about Kizer and it’s all the shit I care absolutely little to nothing about. He’s big, he’s physical and he’s got a canon for an arm. He’s super athletic and can make a lot of plays with his legs. He throws an accurate deep ball.
It’s the rest of the passes that concern me, considering he didn’t even hit 60 percent of his passes. But the biggest red flag is that Notre Dame’s offense did not demand NFL-level pass reads from Kizer. In fact, it didn’t seem to demand much post-snap reading of the defense at all. If you look at that tape, Kizer’s head never moves. He locks onto one receiver and there are at least four passes on the tape I’ve included here where Kizer is so locked onto a guy, he just moves around in the pocket until he gets open, passing up other wide open targets along the way.
What about his big-game ability? There’s none. At all. The Fighting Irish finished 4-8 this season and Kizer shit the bed in plenty of those losses. Against North Carolina State he led the Notre Dame offense to a whopping three points and completed just 9-of-26 passes for 56 yards and an interception.
Against Stanford he was even worse, since his defense had shut out the Cardinal in the first half. Kizer managed just 10 points in that game, all in the first half and with the game on the line in the second, where all he needed to do to close it out was a single scoring drive, he did all of jack shit. He finished 14-of-26 for 154 yards and two interceptions. This is the top ranked QB in the draft class? Are you kidding me?
And, lest we forget, Notre Dame head coach Bryan Kelly wasn’t even settled on Kizer as his starter until the second game. He split time with Malik Zaire in game one against Texas (a loss), because Kelly wasn’t convinced Kizer was the guy. How many red flags do you need?
The only thing that’s going to keep Kizer from becoming the next JaMarcus Russell is if he goes to a team with an established quarterback, sits and learns. For years. I’ve ranked him this high based on his raw talent and what he could eventually be. If he gets drafted in the first round and goes to a team that expects him to start immediately, he’ll be out of the NFL in three years.
Ideal situation: Carolina Panthers, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins
To be continued…
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