Every week during the 2018 season, GetMoreSports.com will conduct an exclusive Q&A interview with former NFL player Glenn Gronkowski. You may have heard of his older brother, Rob, but this guy is just as cool and knows his gambling stuff.
Glenn’s experience, familiarity and connections within the league, its coaches and its players allow him to provide unparalleled insight and analysis. The information provided in this series can be incredibly valuable to any sports bettor, which is why this is must-read material every week.
In this week’s edition (NFL Preseason Week 1), Glenn gives his fearless picks for season win totals, the Super Bowl, conferences, divisions, preseason and more.
All odds are subject to change and courtesy of BetDSI.eu, which is open to U.S. players and accepts credit cards.
Interview with Glenn Gronkowski: NFL Preseason Week 1
GetMoreSports: NFL season win totals have been out for a few months, and the markets have had time to mature. Looking at the full list, which team are you looking to bet the over and why?
Glenn Gronkowski: I’m looking at San Francisco over 8.5 wins. Jim Garoppolo has gone in there and already made a huge difference. The team believes in him and his leadership. He only had about five weeks to learn the playbook in the second half of last year and still turned the team around by going 6-0. I think the hot streak continues.
And now that Garoppolo has had a year to learn the offense as well as his teammates strengths and weaknesses, I think he will continue to make a positive impact on the field. I believe they will exceed the 8.5 wins and when you’re getting plus money on the over (+125), this is a great value bet that will pay out well before the end of the year.
Check out the Gronkowski Brothers’ inaugural podcast: THE GRONKCAST exclusively for GetMoreSports.com:
GMS: Which season win total are you looking to bet the under and why?
Gronk: Take the Jets under six wins. New York has been struggling for a while, and honestly I cannot think of a player on their team that will help them make a major difference this year. Although they did draft Sam Darnold, I am not sure he will be starting the whole season or if he has the players around him to help him be the best player he can be yet.
The Jets’ schedule is pretty tough and I do not see many wins except for maybe Cleveland, Miami and the Giants. Of course there will be some upsets throughout the season, but I do not think they will pull out enough upsets to go at least 7-9. Also, more than half of their home games are against 2017 playoff teams, which means they are going to have to win games on the road to eclipse this six-win total. You have to lay some additional juice at around -130, but there is no way the Jets get to seven wins. At worst, this bet will be a push, but I don’t see that happening.
GMS: Who is going to win each of the eight divisions?
Gronk: A couple surprise picks on my list that I also believe have great value in the betting odds.
- AFC West: Chargers (+115)
- AFC East: Patriots (-800)
- AFC North: Steelers (-260)
- AFC South: Jaguars (+160)
- NFC West: 49ers (+350)
- NFC East: Eagles (-165)
- NFC North: Lions (+720)
- NFC South: Falcons (+170)
GMS: What do you think about the AFC race, which is possibly closer than it has been in a long time. Who is going to win the AFC?
Gronk: I have to go with the easy pick and take the Patriots. Of course, they are the favorite (+230) based on their dominance over the last decade, but I don’t see any sign of them slowing down. Especially playing in the AFC East, they should be able to pull off another first-round bye and get that extra rest in the playoffs, which is a huge benefit for recovery and scouting other teams.
GMS: The Eagles are also favored (+260) to repeat and win the NFC again. Which team will emerge from that conference?
Gronk: I think the Eagles pull it off again. Their team is stacked, not just on offense, but on defense as well. With Carson Wentz back from injury, coming off an amazing year, he should be able to return to his MVP-caliber performance.
And as we know, even if Wentz does end up getting injured again, the Eagles have proved they can win with Nick Foles. There are very few NFL teams that say they can win with a backup, as there is usually a dramatic difference in the amount of reps backup QBs and starting skill players have together. With Wentz looking healthy and ready to go for Week 1, I think the Eagles are ready to dominate the NFC for a second straight year.
GMS: What about the big game? Who is going to win Super Bowl LIII on February 3 of 2019?
Gronk: While I’m predicting a Super Bowl rematch, I don’t foresee the Patriots losing twice to the same team in back-to-back years. As it appears that Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are potentially nearing the end of their careers, they will be doing everything to get back to the current status of Super Bowl champions. Although the offense or defense isn’t the best it’s ever been, and they lost a key coach in Patricia, Belichick always finds a way to get the players he needs to get the job done.
GMS: What is your best preseason betting tip?
Gronk: Don’t bet on the preseason! Too many players and substitutions make it very difficult to predict. If you are going to roll the preseason dice, then look for teams that have backups who have been on the same team for a while, or a quarterback who started last year because the starter got injured. They will have more playing experience and they will have a better grasp on the playbook than a rookie. No matter what the position, this could make a big difference
GMS: Which current coach is highly motivated to win preseason games?
Gronk: Matt Patricia of the Lions. Obviously, coming from the Patriots there is a lot of focus on how he is going to do this year and expectations that he will be able to win games. To start off on the right foot in the preseason and get some wins, not just for the players but also for him, goes a long way in terms of confidence. This will help ease some of the stress because getting your first win is always the toughest. The preseason is also more about finding the players you need rather than winning games, but winning always helps.
GMS: What’s your favorite Preseason Week 1 pick?
Gronk: Ravens -1. With both RGIII and Lamar Jackson as the most likely candidates for Week 1 preseason action, I think the Ravens have a high edge above the Rams, who will be sitting all of their key players. Also, watching the Hall of Fame game, Baltimore’s defense looked stout behind linebacker Kamalei Correa, only giving up an early touchdown and a late touchdown. Now that they have already played a game I believe they will win Thursday.
GMS: Switching gears from NFL to college for our final question. Your alma mater, Kansas State, has a season win total of 6.5. It seems like the Wildcats are regularly undervalued, and they have a coach that maximizes his talent. Are you taking the over or under?
Gronk: Over. Kansas State is overlooked year after year. Being picked at the bottom of the Big 12 has only further fueled the players to compete at a higher level. Although Kansas State may not have top recruits or the most compelling team on paper, they have learned to overcome challenges through preparation, hard work and determination.
They have one of the best returning offensive lines in the country protecting two QBs who are returning as well, which makes a huge difference for a team that has such a complex playbook. Looking back at Kansas State QBs, there have been major improvements from every one of them from their first year and the years following because they are able to get a handle of the playbook.
I believe the Wildcats surprise everyone again and pull out an 8- or 9-win season despite the difficult Big 12 schedule.
We also sat down with Glenn’s brother Chris Gronkowski, for an exclusive interview :
The Gronkcast Episodes:
Link: The GronkCast: Episode 4: Inside The NFL: NFL Betting Strategies, The Best NFL Prop Bets
- Glenn Gronkowski Q&A: How important is home-field advantage? - October 21, 2018
- Glenn Gronkowski Q&A: How long can Patrick Mahomes keep up this pace? - September 23, 2018
- Glenn Gronkowski Q&A: NFL Week 2 Predictions - September 16, 2018
- Glenn Gronkowski Q&A: Week 1 Underdog Picks - September 8, 2018
- Betting Q&A with Glenn Gronkowski: NFL Prop Bets - September 3, 2018
- Betting Q&A with Glenn Gronkowski: NFL Prop Bets - August 31, 2018
- Betting Q&A with Glenn Gronkowski: Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson and more - August 22, 2018
- Betting Q&A with Glenn Gronkowski: Baker Mayfield and more - August 16, 2018
- Betting Q&A with Glenn Gronkowski: NFL Preseason Betting Week 1 - August 9, 2018