Super Bowl LIII features two of the highest-scoring teams in the league, each of which features a top-10 passing offense. Tom Brady, the all-time leader in Super Bowl passing yards (and 1,420 yards ahead of second place Kurt Warner), will face a quarterback making his Super Bowl debut in Jared Goff. This prop takes a look at whether Brady or Goff will have one of the all-time great Super Bowl passing performances.
Will either quarterback throw for 400 yards?
Yes +350
No -500
Related: Super Bowl Betting Guide
Yes (+350)
Tom Brady holds the top two spots on the all-time single-game Super Bowl passing yards leaderboard. Even better, he did it in the last two Super Bowls, throwing for 505 yards in Super Bowl LII and 466 yards in Super Bowl LI.
Brady is fourth all-time with 12 career 400-yard games (including playoffs). Goff has two in his short career, having done it twice in 2018. The first came in Week 4 at home against Minnesota (465) and the second came in Week 11 at home against Kansas City (413).
Brady is one of four quarterbacks (Jim Kelly, Donovan McNabb, Dan Marino) to have 50 or more pass attempts in a Super Bowl. He and Kelly have done it twice and Brady has the record for most pass attempts in a Super Bowl (62).
No (-500)
Brady may have two 400-yard passing games in a Super Bowl, but only three have ever occurred. The only other 400-yard game came courtesy of Kurt Warner with the St. Louis Rams against the Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV. Considering six percent of Super Bowls ended with a 400-yard passer, the chances aren’t great.
Drew Brees is the all-time leader in 400-yard games (including playoffs) with 19. In the NFC Championship, the Rams held him to 249 yards in New Orleans in a game that went to overtime. If they held Brees well below 400 yards, they can do the same to Brady.
Though Brady has thrown for 400 yards in the last two Super Bowls, he didn’t do it once in 2018. His season-high (including playoffs) was 358 yards in New England’s loss to the Dolphins in Miami.
Brady and Goff have never managed to throw for 400 yards against their respective Super Bowl opponent. In five career meetings with the Rams, Brady’s career high was 304 yards in 2012. Goff faced the Patriots once back in his rookie season. He threw for 161 yards.
Goff is also still searching for his first career 300-yard game in the postseason. His 297 yards against the Saints were a career high. He threw for 259 and 186 yards in his previous two postseason games against the Falcons and Cowboys, respectively.
The bet:
Yes, but mostly because there’s no value with “no” at -500. A 400-yard game is not completely unrealistic since Goff did it twice this season and Brady did it in each of the last two Super Bowls. The Rams also allowed a 392-yard game to Kirk Cousins and a 448-yard game to Patrick Mahomes this year. Go with “yes” and expect Brady to be the one who gets you the win if it happens.
