The international break that featured last two rounds of the qualifiers for 2018 World Cup that will take place in Russia is finally over and it’s time to get back to the domestic competitions. The opening match of the German Bundesliga round 8 will be hosted in Stuttgart at Mercedes-Benz Arena between the teams that can’t be satisfied with their results so far into the season. The VfB Stuttgart team is winless in last three rounds and they are coming off from a 2:1 road loss against Eintracht Frankfurt in round 7. On the other side the FC Koln is winless in first seven rounds of the season and has only one point earned so far. They are coming off from a 2:1 home loss against RB Leipzig in the last round.
It’s time to win some money so let’s take a closer look.
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Koln
Three-Way: 1: VfB Stuttgart +129; X: +266 Draw; FC Koln +309
Spread -0.5: VfB Stuttgart +104; FC Koln -110
Total +2.5: Over +120; Under -112
VFB STUTTGART
An effort to avoid the battle for survival after being promoted to the top tier of German Bundesliga this season is unsuccessful so far and the way the things are looking right now, we could witness the express return to the second tier German Bundesliga (Zweite) by VfB Stuttgart. Currently, the team ranks at the No. 14 spot in the league table with seven total points earned, two spots above the relegation line. Some reason for optimism comes from the fact that they are undefeated at home with two wins (1:0 against Wolfsburg and 1:0 against Mainz) and one draw (0:0 against FC Augsburg) but they’ve managed to record four defeats in four road games so far.
Statistically, they’re averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 goals conceded per match but they still haven’t conceded at Mercedes-Benz Arena. Their total goal difference is 4-9 (2-0 at home) and 71% of their matches had under 2.5 goals in total. All three home soil games had less than 1.5 goals in total. In two of seven Stuttgart’s duels both teams scored and they also managed to concede in both halves in the same number of games.
Coach Hannes Wolf has mostly been practicing the 3-4-2-1 scheme so far with three center-backs, Baumgartl, Badstuber, and Kaminski while the middle of the field looked a bit packed with Beck, Ascacibar, Pavard and Aogo operating together. Agolo, Donis, and Ginczek have been starting the duels with mostly attacking responsibilities while goalie Zieler kept his position between the bars firmly. Chadrac Akolo is the team’s leading scorer so far with two goals in his account while Simon Terrode and Holger Badstuber have one each. Passing segment belongs to Benjamin Pavard and Timo Baumgartl with 438 and 369 total passes.
Holger Badstuber (knee), Christian Gentner (head), Ailton Ferreira Silva (ankle), Anto Grgic (ankle) and Carlos Mane (knee) are all listed as day to day while Emiliano Insua (knee) is back in training. Matthias Zimmermann who suffered a crucial ligament injury during the summer will be absent for a longer period of time and there is no timetable set for his return.
FC KOLN
The FC Koln team is recording the worst season start in top-tier German Bundesliga in the team’s history. With seven rounds behind, they have only one point earned and they are cemented to the rock bottom of the league table at the moment. Squad’s goal difference is 2-15 and they haven’t scored a goal on the road yet. Much more concerning fact is that the roster clearly lacks quality and commitment along with some motivational issues that are definitely head coach Peter Stoger’s fault. The player who has been signed in order to replace the summer departure of striker Anthony Modeste, Jhon Cordoba hasn’t shown much yet and the fans are in serious doubt about his skills. Another big hit for the team came just before the international break when they lost the UEFA Europa League group stage opener against Serbian side Red Star Belgrade (0:1) in front of their own crowd that can be considered as a disgrace having in mind the competitions these two teams are participating in and the difference in quality between German Bundesliga and Serbian Premier League.
Stat sheet also looks terrible for the Billy Goats. Besides their -13 goal difference (2.25 goals conceded per match) they’ve managed to concede at least one goal in both halves in every second duel so far while they still haven’t been able to score in both halves this season. They’ve lost 75% of their matches with no goal scored and 50% of their road games had over 2.5 goals in total. Yuya Osako and Frederik Sorensen are the authors of only two goals that Stoger’s 4-4-2 scheme managed to produce so far. Passing segment belongs to defender Dominique Heintz who has collected 311 total passes. Goalie Timo Horn ranks fourth in the league in the number of saves with 24 and third in number of shots against with 110.
From this point of view, it looks like the FC Koln team is destined to fight a very hard battle for survival this season and we’ll see if that will be the case but I’m pretty sure that Peter Stoger’s position at the helm of the squad is in a big jeopardy. The moment of truth will probably occur next week in Round 9 when they’ll host Werder Bremen. I’m afraid that the win in this game will be an imperative and anything besides the win will probably mean termination of Stoger as head coach.
Jhon Cordoba (thigh), and Nikolas Nartey (meniscus) are set to be back in November while Jonas Hector (ankle) should be available before Christmas. Christian Clemens (Illness), Matthias Lehmann (unknown) and Timo Horn (hip) are listed as day to day while Marcel Risse’s (meniscus) and Marius Laux’s (unknown) status is still unknown. Simon Zoller (back) is back in training.
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Koln – Match Prediction
Last year Stuttgart team competed in Zweite and there were no duels between these two foes but a year before when they got relegated, the road team took the full prey in both matchups as Stuttgart emerged victorious at Rhein-Energie Stadium and Koln emerged victorious at Mercedes-Benz Arena. As a matter of fact, Stuttgart is winless in last eight games at home against this opponent with six losses and two draws. Last time they managed to win at home against FC Koln was in 2002 (1:0 win). Squads’ recent form is suggesting that this negative streak could finally come to an end and I also think that the home team can snatch a victory on Friday. The visitors have not yet had a solid performance this year and I doubt that it will be the case this time too, having in mind that they also have seven players on injury list right now. The additional pick is under 2.5 goals in total.
My pick: VfB Stuttgart to win (+129)
Additional Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-112)
