The No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (19-4, 9-1 ACC) welcome the No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers (20-2, 8-2 ACC) in a matchup that pits phenomenal offense against tremendous defense. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, February 11, 2019, and will air on ESPN.
Virginia Cavaliers vs. North Carolina Tar Heels ATS Prediction
The Cavaliers are hoping for a better outcome after their 81-71 loss to the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils in their last outing. Duke’s 0.356 free throw rate was their biggest strength over Virginia, who had a rate of 0.083. The Blue Devils’ mark was above their season average of 0.234, while the Cavaliers’ was below their season average of 0.233. Virginia’s Ty Jerome played well, contributing 16 points.
In the Tar Heels’ last matchup, they barely escaped the Miami (FL) Hurricanes, 88-85. North Carolina’s 0.197 free throw rate was their largest strength over Miami (FL), who had a mark of 0.103. The Tar Heels’ mark matched their season average, while the Hurricanes’ was below their season average of 0.230. Coby White was the game’s high scorer with 33 points on 11-for-16 shooting from the field.
After the Cavaliers won both meetings against the Tar Heels last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the most recent matchup, Virginia won 71-63. The Cavaliers’ turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Tar Heels. Virginia had a rate of 6.3, while North Carolina posted a mark of 13.7.
The game should be a battle of strength against strength as the high-octane offense of North Carolina takes on the stingy defense of Virginia. The Tar Heels rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, while the Cavaliers are third in defensive efficiency.
Virginia vs. North Carolina Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – North Carolina, ATS Winner – North Carolina, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Virginia ranks 52nd in three pointers allowed per game (20.1) while North Carolina ranks 253rd (25.5).
The Cavaliers rank first in assists allowed per game (8.5) while the Tar Heels rank 191st (14.3).
North Carolina ranks 37th in steals per game (7.8) while Virginia ranks 170th (5.7).
The Tar Heels rank first in rebounds per game (43.0) while the Cavaliers rank 134th (35.9).
Virginia ranks 41st in blocks allowed per game (2.7) while North Carolina ranks 171st (4.5).
Bettings Trends:
The Cavaliers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 10.2, down from 18.6 for the season.
During their last five games, the Tar Heels have scored an average of 92.0 points per game (3.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 77.2 points per game (3.0 above their season average).
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