It will be a battle between Southeast Division opponents when the Miami Heat (41-36) welcome the Atlanta Hawks (22-55) to AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 3, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports Sun.
Miami is an 11.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 207.5 points.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
In the Hawks’ last matchup, they beat the Orlando Magic, 94-88. Atlanta held the Magic to an effective field goal percentage of 0.396 (below their season average of 0.515). Orlando, on the other hand, did a fantastic job of making free throws (12-13; 92.3 percent). Atlanta was lifted by Dewayne Dedmon, who contributed 17 points and 10 rebounds.
The Heat lost a close one to the Brooklyn Nets in their last contest, 110-109. One of Brooklyn’s largest advantages was getting to the free throw line. They made 28 trips to the line, while Miami went 21 times. With 18 points on 7-for-10 shooting, James Johnson led Miami in scoring.
Miami should have the edge on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat currently rank seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507), while Atlanta is 21st in effective field goal percentage (0.512).
Atlanta comes into the game with records of 22-55 straight up (SU) and 36-39-2 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of the Hawks’ games have finished under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 41-36 SU and 39-34-4 ATS. Similarly to Atlanta, just over half of Heat games have finished under the O/U total.
The two teams have split their two matchups this season. The Hawks won the most recent matchup 110-104, covering as 2-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 214 points, which was 12 points above the projected point total of 202 points. The Hawks had a much better turnover percentage (11.0 vs. 17.1) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (22.7 vs. 21.6). Taurean Prince was a standout player in the game, producing 24 points and seven rebounds.
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat ATS Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Hawks, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Atlanta is 17-19-2 ATS on the road with 22 unders and 16 overs.
Miami is 16-20-2 ATS at home with 19 unders, 17 overs and 2 pushes.
Miami is 25-6 when they allow below 100 points, while Atlanta is 11-4.
The Heat are 29-18 when they score above 100 points, while the Hawks are 18-30.
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.8) while Atlanta ranks 27th (26.1).
The Heat rank third in three pointers allowed per game (26.2) while the Hawks rank 26th (30.7).
Miami ranks sixth in blocks per game (5.2) while Atlanta ranks 24th in blocks allowed per game (5.4).
The Heat rank 12th in steals allowed per game (7.5) while the Hawks rank 26th (8.7).
Miami ranks 12th in points in the paint per game (44.5) while Atlanta ranks 26th (41.2).
The Hawks rank fourth in points off turnovers per game (17.6) while the Heat rank 17th (16.2).
Atlanta ranks 17th in second chance points per game (12.0) while Miami ranks 26th (10.9).
The Hawks rank 20th in fast break points per game (10.5) while the Heat rank 28th (8.9).
Miami averages 43.2 rebounds per game, which ranks 17th in the league. Atlanta ranks 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (44.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Atlanta is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 1-3-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Hawks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 9.4, up from 5.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 103.2 points per game (0.1 below their season average) and allowed an average of 99.8 points per game (2.9 below their season average).
*****
