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Best Bets to Win the Valspar Championship

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

With the dust still settling from Rory McIlroy’s impressive victory at THE PLAYERS Championship last week, the focus now shifts from TPC Sawgrass to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida for the Valspar Championship. Eighty seven of the 144 golfers that competed in THE PLAYERS have officially declared to play in the Valspar Championship this week. It will be interesting to see which of those golfers rises to the occasion and which of them struggle to keep the urgency level up following that event. We took the time to break down the best bets to win this week’s tournament including a look at the top selections among the sports betting favorites and some capable sleeper picks. Here is a look at the best bets to win the Valspar Championship.

Event Details

Event: Valspar Championship
Date: March 21st-24th, 2019
Category: PGA
Location: Copperhead Course, Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club, Palm Harbor


Past Five Winners

2018: Paul Casey -10
2017: Adam Hadwin -14
2016: Charl Schwartzel -7
2015: Jordan Spieth -10
2014: John Senden -7

Dustin Johnson +505

This will be D.J.’s first start at Innisbrook since 2010. The fact that he hasn’t competed at this course in nearly 10 years is pretty much the only variable that doesn’t support him delivering a strong performance this week. After all, Johnson is coming off his a Top 10 finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, which now makes it three tournaments in a row and five of his last six that he’s placed in the top 10. The world No. 1 has also posted two wins over the past two months and is the favorite here for good reason.

Jason Day +1050

Day is also returning to Palm Harbor for the first time in a while as he is set to make his first appearance in six years here. As is the case with D.J., the time that has passed between Day’s starts at this course is the only variable that doesn’t support backing him this week. Day has already produced six Top 15 finishes so far this season. He hasn’t finished worse than T-11th at any event. He also ranks inside the Top 25 in total driving, Greens In Regulation and Strokes Gained: Putting.

Jon Rahm +1015

Unlike D.J. and Day, Rahm has never actually played this tournament before. One of the hottest players in the field right now, Rahm has registered 11 Top 25 finishes in his past 12 starts overall. He’s coming off a disappointing final round at THE PLAYERS Championship but his ball-striking numbers have been outstanding and he should be motivated to bounce back from last week’s disappointment.

Sergio Garcia +1550

While he isn’t listed among the top-three in terms of the betting favorites, Garcia probably should be as he is among the hottest golfers in the world right now. Garcia leads the PGA Tour in adjusted scoring over his last three starts. He’s also placed in the Top 20 in each of his last four trips to Copperhead, including a fourth-place finish here a year ago.

Patrick Reed +2050

Reed has produced Top 25 finishes in five of his eight starts this year but still hasn’t been able to crack the Top 10. Will that change this week in Florida? Reed undoubtedly has the skill set to thrive here. In five starts at Copperhead, Reed has produced two runner-up finishes and an additional three Top 10 results.

Jim Furyk +3250

Speaking of a sneaky good value pick, Furyk certainly fits the bill as an intriguing option this week following a near-win at THE PLAYERS Championship. The 48-year-old won this event in 2010 and has produced three other Top 10 finishes in 10 total starts here, including a seventh-place finish here a year ago.

Brandt Snedeker +4050

Looking even deeper down the list of options, Snedeker should be on the radar as a solid sleeper option. Coming off a fifth-place finish at THE PLAYERS Championship, Snedeker is showing signs of heating up heading into this week’s event. The veteran has produced two Top 10 finishes at this tournament, including a fourth-place finish here back in 2011. At just over 40/1, it might be worth it to take a chance on Snedeker as a sleeper pick to win outright.

Ryan Moore +4550

Moore is another longshot who might be worth a look. He’s coming off his best finish of the year, which was a fifth-place result at THE PLAYERS Championship, Moore has produced some solid results at this tournament in recent years including a fifth-place finish in 2015 and a third-place finish in 2017. He could be a good value play with the Top 10 props as well.

Odds To Win The 2019 Valspar Championship

Dustin Johnson +505
Jon Rahm +1015
Jason Day +1050
Sergio Garcia +1550
Webb Simpson +1850
Patrick Reed +2050
Paul Casey +2050
Gary Woodland +2050
Jim Furyk +3250
Henrik Stenson +3250
Louis Oosthuizen +3550
Keegan Bradley +3550
Lucas Glover +3550
Rafa Cabrera Bello +4050
Kevin Kisner +4050
Jason Kokrak +4050
Ryan Moore +4550
Tyrrell Hatton +4550
Bubba Watson +4550
Charl Schwartzel +6550
Brandt Snedeker +4050
Sungjae Im +5500
Russell Knox +5500
Adam Hadwin +5500
Zach Johnson +7550
Branden Grace +6550
Ollie Schniederjans +7050
Russell Henley +7550
Kevin Na +7550
J T Poston +7550

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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