The Los Angeles Lakers (12-9) clash against the Dallas Mavericks (10-9) at the Staples Center. The game is scheduled to get underway at 10:30 p.m. ET on Friday, November 30, 2018.
Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 221 points.
Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers ATS Prediction
The Mavericks will be hoping for a similar result after dismantling the Houston Rockets in their last outing, 128-108, as 5.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (236) came in well over the O/U total of 217.5. The Mavericks knocked down 19 of their 24 free throws (79.2 percent) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.641 (above their season average of 0.532). J.J. Barea played a pivotal role for Dallas with 13 points and 12 assists.
The last time the Lakers took the court, they defeated the Indiana Pacers, 104-96, covering as 3-point favorites. The game’s combined points (200) were well under the projected point total of 219. Los Angeles’ 0.529 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Indiana, who had a mark of 0.430. The Lakers’ mark was below their season average of 0.531, while the Pacers’ was below their season average of 0.536. LeBron James was the top scorer from either team with 38 points on 15-for-27 shooting from the field.
It will be a showdown of conflicting paces as the up-and-down Lakers (ranked third in the NBA in possessions per game) will look to push the slower-paced Mavericks (17th in possessions per game).
Dallas comes into the game with records of 10-9 straight up (SU) and 13-6 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Mavericks have a tendency to go over the O/U total (57.9 percent).
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is 12-9 SU and 7-13 ATS. Unlike Dallas, Lakers games tend to finish under the total (60.0 percent).
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, JaVale McGee had 16 points, 15 rebounds and 5 blocks and the Lakers beat the Mavericks 114-113 but could not cover as 7.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was 7 points below the projected point total of 234 points. Los Angeles did a fantastic job of making free throws (18-24; 75.0 percent). Dallas, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (24.4 vs. 21.1).
Mavericks vs. Lakers Betting Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Lakers, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Dallas is 5-4 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 4 unders.
Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS at home with 6 unders and 4 overs.
When allowing below 100 points, Dallas is 3-1 and Los Angeles is 4-0.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Lakers are 11-8 and the Mavericks are 10-8.
Dallas ranks third in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while Los Angeles ranks 25th (47.0).
The Mavericks rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.9) while the Lakers rank 25th (51.6).
Los Angeles averages 20.0 fast break points per game, which ranks second in the league. Dallas ranks 23rd in fast break points allowed per game (14.7).
The Lakers rank first in blocks per game (6.7) while the Mavericks rank 21st (4.8).
Los Angeles averages 8.4 steals per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Dallas ranks 25th in steals allowed per game (9.4).
The Mavericks rank 7 in second chance points per game (14.947368421052632) while the Lakers rank 19 in second chance points allowed per game (13.80952380952381).
Dallas averages 17.42105263157895 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 12 in the league. Los Angeles ranks 23 in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.19047619047619).
The Lakers rank 13 in assists per game (23.857142857142858) while the Mavericks rank 16 in assists allowed per game (24.105263157894736).
Dallas ranks 9 in three pointers attempted per game (33.473684210526315) while Los Angeles ranks 11 in three pointers allowed per game (30.476190476190474).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Dallas is 4-1 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS with 5 unders over its last five games.
The Mavericks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 5.6, up from 2.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Lakers have scored an average of 98.4 points per game (13.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 101.8 points per game (10.3 below their season average).
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