The Toronto Raptors (54-20) square off against the Denver Nuggets (40-34) at Air Canada Centre. The game will air on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 27, 2018.
Toronto opened as a 9-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 226.5 points.
Denver Nuggets vs. Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction
In the Nuggets’ last matchup, they were thoroughly outplayed by the Philadelphia 76ers, 123-104. Philadelphia out-rebounded Denver. The 76ers had 14 offensive rebounds and 54 total rebounds, while the Nuggets had nine and 37, respectively. Paul Millsap put together a solid game for Denver, putting up 16 points and nine rebounds.
The Raptors lost to the Los Angeles Clippers in their last game, 117-106. Getting to the charity stripe was one of Los Angeles’ biggest strengths. They made 27 trips to the line, while Toronto went just 14 times. Toronto’s Jonas Valanciunas put up 16 points and 10 rebounds in the contest.
The productive offense of Toronto (third in the league with an offensive efficiency of 112.1) will square off against the porous defense of Denver (25th in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 109.4). The Raptors should have the edge on that side of the ball.
Denver holds records of 40-34 straight up (SU) and 33-37-3 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Nuggets games, with 37 overs compared to 36 unders.
Meanwhile, Toronto is 54-20 SU and 40-34 ATS. A little over half of Raptors games have also finished over the total.
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Jamal Murray (21.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.6 steals) has been fantastic for the Nuggets while Kyle Lowry (21.8 points, 8.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds) has contributed greatly to the Raptors.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Nikola Jokic had eight points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists and the Nuggets defeated the Raptors 129-111, covering as 1.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 240 points, which was 23 points above the projected point total of 217 points. The Nuggets had a better free throw rate (0.216 vs. 0.188) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.7 vs. 20.9).
Denver Nuggets vs. Toronto Raptors Betting Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Denver is 14-20-2 ATS with 18 overs and 18 unders.
Toronto is 19-18 ATS at home with 19 unders and 18 overs.
In games where they allow below 100 points, Denver is 13-2 and Toronto is 25-5.
When reaching 100 points, the Nuggets are 34-24 and the Raptors are 50-13.
Toronto averages 17.7 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Denver ranks 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
The Nuggets rank second in second chance points allowed per game (10.5) while the Raptors rank 25th (13.3).
Toronto ranks sixth in assists per game (24.1) while Denver ranks 25th in assists allowed per game (24.9).
The Raptors rank sixth in points in the paint per game (48.4) while the Nuggets rank 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (46.9).
Toronto ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (7.1) while Denver ranks 19th (7.9).
The Raptors rank second in blocks per game (6.0) while the Nuggets rank 16th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
Toronto averages 13.6 fast break points per game, which ranks ninth in the NBA. Denver ranks 20th in fast break points allowed per game (12.5).
The Raptors rank second in three pointers allowed per game (25.0) while the Nuggets rank 11th (28.9).
Denver ranks first in rebounds allowed per game (41.4) while Toronto ranks ninth (42.4).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Toronto is 0-5 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.4, up from 1.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 113.8 points per game (1.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 115.8 points per game (11.5 above their season average).
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