The UMBC Retrievers (22-10, 13-4 AmEast) and Hartford Hawks (19-12, 12-5 AmEast) wrap up the regular season when they face off at Retriever Activities Center. The game can be seen on ESPN 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 6, 2018.
UMBC is a 5-point favorite on the opening line, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 140.5 points.
Hartford Hawks at UMBC Retrievers ATS Prediction
In the Hawks’ last matchup, they defeated the New Hampshire Wildcats, 71-60. The Hawks made 22 of their 28 free throws (78.6 percent) and held the Wildcats to an effective field goal percentage of 0.426 (below the 0.504 mark opponents have averaged against Hartford this season). J.R. Lynch was a key piece for Hartford with 19 points and six rebounds.
The Retrievers defeated the Massachusetts-Lowell River Hawks in their last outing, 89-77. The Retrievers had 8 steals and held the River Hawks to an offensive rebounding percentage of 21.6 (below their season average of 26.9). Jairus Lyles was the game’s high scorer with 18 points on 8-for-19 shooting.
Getting to the line could be rare for Hartford in this matchup. The Hawks rank 277th in the nation with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.212, while UMBC ranks 68th in FTA rate allowed (0.204).
Hartford heads into the contest with records of 19-12 straight up (SU) and 3-0 against the spread (ATS). Of the Hawks’ 2 games with betting action, two have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, UMBC owns records of 22-10 SU and 2-1 ATS. Unlike Hartford, Retrievers games have a tendency to go over the total (66.7 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. John Carroll (13.4 points and 8.8 rebounds) has been fantastic for the Hawks while K.J. Maura (15.2 points, 5.6 assists and 1.6 steals) has made solid contributions to the Retrievers.
The Retrievers have won both games against the Hawks this season, including a nine-point victory the last time these teams met. The Retrievers had a much better free throw rate (0.200 vs. 0.054) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.520 vs. 0.446). In the victory, Maura led all scorers with 25 points.
Hartford Hawks vs. UMBC Retrievers Pick
Free Basketball Pick: SU Winner – UMBC, ATS Winner – Hartford, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Hartford is 2-0 ATS with 1 under and 0 overs.
At home, UMBC is 1-0 ATS with 1 over and 0 unders.
UMBC ranks 29th in three pointers attempted per game (26.4) while Hartford ranks 201st in three pointers allowed per game (23.0).
The Retrievers rank 32nd in steals per game (7.6) while the Hawks rank 146th (6.0).
UMBC ranks 55th in assists per game (15.5) while Hartford ranks 142nd in assists allowed per game (13.4).
The Hawks rank 215th in rebounds per game (33.7) while the Retrievers rank 217th in rebounds allowed per game (36.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Hartford is 1-0 ATS with 1 under.
UMBC is 1-0 ATS with 1 over over their last five games.
The Hawks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 4.4, up from 1.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Retrievers have scored an average of 71.8 points per game (2.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 65.8 points per game (4.2 below their season average).
