The Miami Heat (3-5) visit Detroit to play the Pistons (4-4) in what should be a low-scoring game. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, November 5, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Seattle.
Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons Free Prediction
The Heat are hoping for a better outcome after not being able to cover as 5.5-point favorites in their 123-118 loss to the Atlanta Hawks in their last game. The game’s combined points (241) were well over the projected point total of 225.5. Atlanta’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Miami. The Hawks had a rate of 0.597 (above their season average of 0.518), while the Heat posted a mark of 0.570. Josh Richardson was the top scorer from either team with 32 points on 10-for-18 shooting.
In the Pistons’ previous matchup, they fell to the Philadelphia 76ers, 109-99. They were unable to cover as 7.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (208) were under the O/U total of 221. Philadelphia was successful at getting and making free throws. The 76ers made 44 of their 51 free throws (86.3 percent), while the Pistons were just 28-41 (68.3 percent). With 38 points on 12-for-21 shooting, Blake Griffin led Detroit in scoring.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams battle. Detroit ranks 28th in possessions per game (99.0) and Miami is 29th (99.0) dating back to last season. Furthermore, the Heat rank 21st in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.180), while the Pistons rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.179).
Miami comes into the contest with records of 3-5 straight up (SU) and 3-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s eight games, six have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Detroit owns records of 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS. Vegas is exceedingly precise when setting the O/U total of Pistons games, with an even split between overs and unders.
These two teams split four games last season. The Heat won the last matchup 105-96. The Heat had a better free throw rate (0.232 vs. 0.169) and had a better turnover percentage (12.1 vs. 15.5).
Heat at Pistons Betting Pick
Free Prediction: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
Both teams are strong when holding the opposition to under 100 points, as Detroit is 22-6 and Miami is 28-6.
The Pistons are 39-21 when they reach 100 points, while the Heat are 36-26.
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (21.4) while Detroit ranks 22nd (25.2).
The Heat rank 10th in blocks per game (5.5) while the Pistons rank 25th (3.9).
Miami ranks third in three pointers allowed per game (27.2) while Detroit ranks 16th (30.8).
The Pistons rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.2) while the Heat rank 12th (12.3).
Detroit ranks first in fast break points allowed per game (9.9) while Miami ranks fourth (11.1).
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