The Miami Heat (7-11) travel to Scotiabank Arena to challenge the league leading Toronto Raptors (16-4). The game will air on Fox Sports – Seattle at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, November 25, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 218.5 points with Toronto set as a 12-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors ATS Prediction
In the Heat’s last outing, they covered the 4-point spread against the Chicago Bulls, 103-96. The game’s total points (199) finished under the O/U total of 213. The Heat forced 18 turnovers and held the Bulls to an effective field goal percentage of 0.410 (below their season average of 0.506). Hassan Whiteside was a key piece for Miami with 18 points and 10 rebounds.
The Raptors had no trouble getting past the Washington Wizards in their last matchup, 125-107, comfortably covering as 10.5-point favorites. The combined points for the game (232) were just over the O/U total of 230.5. Toronto’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Washington. The Raptors had a rate of 0.586 (above their season average of 0.548), while the Wizards posted a mark of 0.441 (below their season average of 0.511). Kawhi Leonard was the top scorer from either team with 27 points on 12-for-22 shooting from the field.
After the Heat won two out of three matchups against the Raptors last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last matchup, Miami won 116-109. Miami had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (33.3 vs. 19.6). Toronto, on the other hand, did a terrific job of converting from the charity stripe (16-21; 76.2 percent).
Miami holds records of 7-11 straight up (SU) and 7-11 against the spread (ATS). Oddsmakers are known to place the total low when the Heat are playing, as 61.1 percent of their contests have finished over the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Toronto is 16-4 SU and 11-9 ATS. Coinciding with Miami, games including the Raptors also tend to finish over the total (65.0 percent).
This battle pits one of the NBA’s top offenses against one of its elite defenses. Toronto currently ranks third in effective field goal percentage (0.550) and Miami is fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.502).
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Free Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Miami is 4-4 ATS on the road with 5 overs and 3 unders.
Toronto is 5-5 ATS at home with 8 overs and 2 unders.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Toronto is 3-0 and Miami is 3-1.
The Heat are 6-8 when they score over 100 points, while the Raptors are 15-4.
Toronto ranks fifth in steals per game (8.7) while Miami ranks 25th (6.7).
The Raptors average 19.2 points off turnovers per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. The Heat rank 25th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.5).
Toronto ranks third in fast break points per game (18.7) while Miami ranks 21st (11.3).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (21.3) while the Raptors rank 21st (24.1).
Toronto averages 14.3 second chance points per game, which ranks 12th in the league. Miami ranks 27th in second chance points allowed per game (16.5).
The Heat rank 1 in blocks per game (6.833333333333333) while the Raptors rank 13 (5.4).
Toronto averages 47.25 rebounds per game, which ranks 8 in the NBA. Miami ranks 19 in rebounds allowed per game (45.888888888888886).
The Raptors rank 5 in points in the paint per game (53.4) while the Heat rank 15 (46.77777777777778).
Miami averages 33 three pointers per game, which ranks 10 in the league. Toronto ranks 13 in three pointers allowed per game (30.9).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Toronto is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.2, up from 1.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Raptors have scored an average of 116.0 points per game (0.3 below their season average) and allowed an average of 102.4 points per game (5.0 below their season average).
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