The Oregon Ducks and the Michigan Wolverines earned a trip to Kansas City and a place in the Sweet 16 by not giving up. Both teams have left it late in the second round but survived on timely shots and their rivals’ miscues.
Place: Sprint Center, Kansas City, Missouri
Date/Time: Thursday March 23th, 2017. 12:09 PM ET
TV Coverage: CBS
#3 Oregon Ducks vs. #7 Michigan Wolverines
LINE: Michigan +1.5 (-110); moneyline -115
Total: 147 points (-105 over, -105 under)
Dorsey’s clutch shooting proves to be a difference
The Oregon Ducks (31-5) rallied from behind to beat the hustling Rhode Island team 75-72 in a thrilling second round matchup. The game was all we expected, as the Rams worked hard to upset the Ducks, but in the end, it was all about who can make a shot when it matters the most. Unsurprisingly, this was Oregon’s Tyler Dorsey, who first hit a three to tie the game with less than 2 minutes to go and then hit another for the lead with 30 seconds on the clock. He scored 27 points on 9-of-10 shooting and 4 threes. Dillon Brooks was the other guy to watch with 19 points, albeit on 20 attempts.
The Ducks fell behind in the first half as a result of many poor decisions and Rams wanting the ball more. They’ve frequently turned the ball over and allowed too many second chance points. Not having Boucher in the middle again proved troubling. Oregon’s defense could not stop the Rams at all costs in the first 30 minutes. The Ducks were also somewhat lucky that the Rams star big man Hassan Martin suffered from the foul trouble throughout the game.
The Michigan Wolverines knock off No.2 Louisville
It’s rare, but the Michigan Wolverines (26-11) haven’t exactly won as much as Louisville lost the second round game. Taking the win away from Michigan may not seem fair, but the Cardinals led by 9 with 16 minutes to play and couldn’t figure a way to stop a single player driving to the basket, while also shooting 5-20 on threes. Louisville’s pressure defense did nothing and played poorly in the half court sets, especially on the screens. The Wolverines certainly get the credit for not quitting despite having played six games in 11 days. It was quite a different game from the last one, when Michigan knocked off Oklahoma State with a flurry of three-pointers. This time, they almost exclusively went inside, mostly to Moritz Wagner who finished with 26 points and made 11 of 14 shots. D.J. Wilson was also instrumental to the comeback with 17 points and some clutch free throws. With Louisville focusing on the Big Ten tournament MVP Derrick Walton, Michigan wisely exploited other mismatches.
For the game, Michigan shot 28-of-57 (49.1%) from the field, and 6-of-17 from the three point range. They’ve handled Louisville pressure with ease, coughing up only six turnovers. Defensively, they’ve held their opponent in from of them, making them shoot contested shots and keeping them off the free throw line. They did allow 15 offensive rebounds, so this is a thing to work on during the week.
#3 Oregon Ducks vs. #7 Michigan Wolverines Game Trends & Prediction
Oregon failed to cover for the third time in the last four games, with the lone exception of Iona game in the first round. They also played their fourth consecutive over game and sixth in the last seven games. As mentioned already in the previous Ducks’ previews, this shows the impact of Boucher’s injury and will not go away. For the season, the Oregon Ducks are 20-15 ATS and 17-18 against the over under.
Michigan is one of the hottest teams in NCAA, winning their last 7 games and covering in all but one of them. This has improved their subpar ATS record to 17-17. Wolverines’ last 5 games ended in either over or a push and the same trend happens over the course of the season. They are currently 20-12-2 against the over/under.
The books see two teams as on par, opening the line at pick-em. The line has since moved towards Michigan since and this is not a surprise. Seeds don’t matter here. Michigan is a tough team who plays hard and knows how to win. The Oregon Ducks haven’t impressed. I see this game very much alike the Ducks-Rams encounter. It will come down to who can hit the big shot in the last minute. With Dorsey enjoying the best stretch of his college career, I’m thinking the Ducks win. I’m also picking the over. Boucher missing; a close game, possibly going to an extra period or fouling at the end; capable three point shooters and the knack for getting to the free throw line are all positive signs.
My Pick: Oregon Ducks ml +110
Total: Over 147 points
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- NCAA Midwest Region Sweet 16: #3 Oregon Ducks vs. #7 Michigan Wolverines - March 20, 2017