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Home » Blog » Solak’s Week 5 takes: Jaguars now the AFC’s top team
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Solak’s Week 5 takes: Jaguars now the AFC’s top team

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Last updated: October 6, 2026 7:00 am
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Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season concluded amid a flurry of penalties. Referees threw 293 flags in Week 4, the most in a single week this season and the highest weekly total since 2019, according to ESPN. The outlet also noted field judge Nathan Jones as a frequent flagger on Carl Cheffers’ crew. ESPN’s Leaguewide column runs each Tuesday with seven tentative observations for the coming week.

Oddsmakers leave the Jacksonville Jaguars in an uncertain spot in the AFC, according to ESPN. The market does not group them with the established top three — the Kansas City Chiefs (4-0), Buffalo Bills (3-1) and Baltimore Ravens (3-1) — but projects them clearly ahead of a second tier that includes the Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos (each 2-2).

ESPN argues Jacksonville belongs in the top tier. Since their Week 9 bye last season the Jaguars are 12-2 in 14 regular-season games, tied with the Seattle Seahawks for the best record over that span. Offensively they rank second in points per drive and defensively third in points per drive across that stretch, ESPN reports.

Turnover figures paint a different picture, however. Over the 14-game stretch the Jaguars are third in turnover margin at plus-11 with 14 giveaways, but their turnover EPA — a metric that weights the impact of turnovers — sits 16th per game, roughly league average, according to ESPN.

Strength of schedule was a concern in 2025 when Jacksonville faced several struggling offenses, including the Colts without Daniel Jones, the Cam Ward-led Titans and the Brady Cook Jets. To open 2026, the Jaguars’ defense faced Deshaun Watson’s Browns, Bo Nix and the Broncos, and a poor showing from Drake Maye and the Patriots, before a stiffer test against Cincinnati.

Jacksonville handled that test with a 22-17 win over the Bengals. The Jaguars registered a 34.5 percent pressure rate on Joe Burrow; defensive tackle Arik Armstead had six pressures in the game, more than Jacksonville’s defensive tackle room had produced through the first two weeks. Burrow threw two interceptions that ESPN said were both the result of pressure in the pocket. The Jaguars also absorbed the absence of outside corner Montaric Brown (hamstring) in that matchup, according to ESPN.

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