For the first time, teams “can’t win by losing.” The NBA has revamped its draft lottery for 2026-27, instituting flat odds for the teams with the fourth- through 10th-worst records, creating a “relegation zone” that reduces the three worst teams’ chances of landing a top pick, and expanding the lottery to draw each of the first 16 selections instead of only the first four.
Those rule changes are expected to produce ripple effects as franchises adapt their end-of-season strategies. One immediate on-court implication is a likely reduction in the number of late-season blowouts. The 2025-26 regular season produced a record 281 games decided by at least 20 points, topping 259 from the previous year; on a percentage basis, 22 percent of games were blowouts, another high-water mark.
The spike in blowouts has been concentrated in recent years. Five of the six seasons with the highest proportion of 20-plus-point games have come since 2021, and the blowout rate climbed notably as the 2025-26 season progressed. From the start of February through the end of the season, a full third of games involving the NBA’s worst teams ended with at least a 20-point margin.
Because cellar teams no longer have the same incentive to lose and may even seek wins to avoid the relegation zone, that late-season spike should theoretically ease. Increased competitiveness from bottom-tier clubs could also temper the appearance of dominance by elite teams; by way of example, the 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder posted a plus-12.9 point differential overall but were plus-10.5 against non-tanking teams and plus-22.6 against that season’s tankers, with five of their seven largest wins coming against teams prioritizing losses.
Expectations that overall scoring would fall with fewer uncompetitive defenses have not been settled. Last season’s bottom nine defenses all belonged to teams that lost 50-plus games, and the Wizards, Jazz and Kings — each with more than 120 points allowed per 100 possessions and 60-plus losses — registered the three highest defensive ratings in NBA history, according to Stathead.
How those structural changes will affect transactional markets such as trades and buyouts remains to be seen, but the new lottery and anti-tanking measures are poised to reshape competitiveness across the league in 2026-27.
