Top performers from 2025 have seen sharp declines in 2026, a combination of injuries and poor performance that has altered team outlooks. A Baseball-Reference analysis found the 23 top finishers from last year combined for 145.1 WAR in 2025 but are on pace for 87.2 WAR in 2026, a 39.9% decrease — the third-largest year-to-year drop since 1995.
Individual cases highlight the breadth of the problem. Cal Raleigh is hitting .172 with 20 home runs and 64 hits this season, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a .693 OPS and has not homered in Toronto all year, according to the report. Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge has not played since May 31 with a stress fracture in his right rib. Garrett Crochet has missed most of the campaign, and Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Hunter Brown have all missed time with injuries.
Other notable declines include Jose Ramirez, who is having his worst season since 2015 as a part-time player, and Julio Rodriguez, who is on pace for the lowest batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage of his five major-league seasons. Paul Skenes’ ERA has jumped toward 4.00 after lower marks previously, and Trea Turner — a fifth-place NL MVP finisher a year ago with 5.4 WAR — is below replacement level in 2026, the report says.
The effects on the Seattle Mariners illustrate the team-level impact. Raleigh’s WAR dropped from 7.2 in 2025 to 0.9 in 2026; Julio Rodriguez fell from 6.6 to 2.5. The report cites Raleigh’s higher strikeout rate, a much lower hard-hit rate, difficulty catching up to fastballs and the possibility he played through an oblique strain before a month-long injured list stint. Seattle ranked ninth in runs per game in 2025; this year the club is last at 3.96. Raleigh’s run value swung from an estimated 49 runs above average in 2025 to seven runs below average in 2026, a 56-run difference, and the Mariners are on pace to score 124 fewer runs than last season.
The Baseball-Reference study put the average year-to-year decline at 31.3% over the last 29 seasons, noting 2026’s drop ranks among the largest since 1995. The cumulative falloff among these former stars has been a defining storyline with clear consequences for several clubs’ playoff races, the analysis concludes.
