Those who lose will complain. That’s a given. We’ve never heard that the winning team head coach pulls off a media conference tirade about how their team got screwed by the refs. It goes beyond basketball and the NBA. They are all very rich people, ready to pay 15-25k to fume out their frustrations.
Make no mistake, the NBA officiating has been in steady decline over the past few years. Despite all the chutzpah and the self-awareness the prior generation of officials had, those people loved and had respect for the game of basketball, and understood how to do their jobs. This generation does not.
Listen, the NBA coaches, the home fans who see the plays almost instantly on the big screen, even us bettors, we’re all biased. But it doesn’t change the fact that we have a plausible reason for concern with the next several weeks deciding the playoff picture, and perhaps beyond.
In previous three days, the officials made the news four times, twice about the Houston Rockets. The refereeing association got in the social network exchange about the league publicizing the last 2 minutes reports, openly opposing it. Then, over the next two days, three head coaches (Doc Rivers, Stan Van Gundy, and Alvin Gentry) publicly slammed the officials for doing a bad job and treating their teams unfairly. All three coaches are veterans of the game and know what they’re seeing. Rivers and Gentry complained on the consecutive days when their teams lost to the bleak showing of the league-leading Rockets, prompting our reaction.
Would the aggressive complaints change the way the Rockets are treated over their next few games?
This kind of question would require a more thorough analysis, but let’s see what we know and how the bettor should adjust based on that knowledge.
First of all, most of the Rockets two-way success with the official comes from Harden’s ability to get to the free throw line on his drives to the left, and plenty of early contact when opposing wings try to drive. Harden has been fooling the officials (or, if you want us to say it differently – using the current way of officiating contact to his advantage) for two or three seasons, and despite all teams being very aware of his high holding arms on his drive, very few can manage their players to be disciplined enough not to have their arms in the position they had been taught to have for entire career.
San Antonio does but could handle Harden only if they get Leonard back. Complaining about the officiating will not help other teams in this regard. As for the Houston Rockets defensive tactics, this might be impacted a little bit. The League does not like officiating being discussed. Not among players and coaches, nor the media. So they might opt to impact how the Houston games are called in the next week or so in a subtle way – by picking whistle-happy crews for the Rockets games. This would lead to more points and the bettors might want to consider giving an extra-point or two on the Rockets lines in some games.
Regular crew refs that whistle most fouls per game are Bennie Adams, Nick Buchert, Mitchell Ervin, Sean Wright and Scott Foster. All five are at the top when taking a look on free throw attempts per game they officiate.
Aaron Smith – James Capers – Derrick Collins were the officials that awarded the Clippers 8 free throws in their 96-101 loss to the Rockets, the one Doc Rivers complained about.
David Guthrie – Derek Richardson – Nick Buchert trio officiated Pelicans 101-107 loss, awarding the home side 12 free throws total.
