It will be a battle between Southeast Division opponents when the Miami Heat (9-13) welcome the Orlando Magic (11-12) to AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, December 4, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Seattle.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 207.5 points with Miami set as a 2-point favorite.
Orlando Magic at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
In the Magic’s last game, they easily covered the 4-point spread against the Phoenix Suns, 99-85. The game’s total points (184) were well under the O/U total of 215.5. The Magic knocked down 13 of their 18 free throws (72.2 percent) and held the Suns to an effective field goal percentage of 0.446 (below their season average of 0.523). Orlando was led by Nikola Vucevic, who was the top scorer from either team with 25 points on 11-for-20 shooting.
The Heat barely escaped the Utah Jazz in their last outing, 102-100, despite being 4-point underdogs. The game’s total points (202) finished under the O/U total of 208.5. The Heat knocked down 17 of their 24 free throws (70.8 percent) and had a better offensive rebounding percentage (25.9 vs. 21.7). Hassan Whiteside was the top scorer from either team with 23 points on 11-for-17 shooting from the field.
Miami figures to have the advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Heat currently rank seventh in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.506), while Orlando is 20th in effective field goal percentage (0.516).
Orlando heads into the game with records of 11-12 straight up (SU) and 14-8-1 against the spread (ATS). Of the Magic’s 23 games, 14 have gone under the projected point total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 9-13 SU and 10-12 ATS. Contrary to Orlando, games including the Heat have typically finished over the O/U total (59.1 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Terrence Ross (15 points,1.4 steals) has been stellar for the Magic while Dwyane Wade (17 points,3.8 assists) has made great contributions to the Heat.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. Aaron Gordon scored a game-high 26 points in the first game, in which the Magic beat the Heat 104-101, covering as 2.5-point underdogs. He also recorded 16 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 205 points, which was just 2.5 points below the projected point total of 207.5 points. The Magic had a better turnover percentage (10.0 vs. 13.0) and had a better free throw rate (0.202 vs. 0.165).
Magic at Heat Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Orlando is 8-2-1 ATS on the road with 6 unders and 5 overs.
Miami is 5-8 ATS at home with 7 overs and 6 unders.
Miami and Orlando are both 3-1 when they allow less than 100 points.
When scoring more than 100 points, the Heat are 8-10 and the Magic are 9-5.
Orlando ranks sixth in assists per game (26.2) while Miami ranks 25th (21.9).
The Magic rank 10th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.9) while the Heat rank 28th (19.3).
Orlando ranks ninth in blocks allowed per game (4.7) while Miami ranks 25th (6.1).
The Heat rank sixth in rebounds per game (47.6) while the Magic rank 22nd in rebounds allowed per game (46.3).
Orlando ranks 15th in second chance points allowed per game (13.0) while Miami ranks 28th (16.3).
The Magic rank 3 in steals allowed per game (6.695652173913044) while the Heat rank 13 (7.590909090909091).
Miami ranks 17 in points in the paint per game (46.54545454545455) while Orlando ranks 26 (43.73913043478261).
The Heat average 33.27272727272727 three pointers per game, which ranks 9 in the league. The Magic rank 11 in three pointers allowed per game (30.652173913043477).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five games, Orlando is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
Miami is 4-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Magic’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.2, up from 2.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 107.8 points per game (0.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 107.4 points per game (2.2 below their season average).
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