The Miami Heat (8-13) clash with the Utah Jazz (11-12) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game is scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, December 2, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 210.5 points with Utah opening as a 3.5-point favorite.
Utah Jazz vs. Miami Heat Free Prediction
In the Jazz’s last game, they topped the Charlotte Hornets, 119-111, as 2-point underdogs. The total points for the game (230) came in over the O/U total of 218. Utah’s 0.160 free throw rate was their largest strength over Charlotte, who had a mark of 0.084. The Jazz’s mark matched their season average, while the Hornets’ was below their season average of 0.206. Utah received a boost from Rudy Gobert, who put up 20 points and 17 rebounds.
The Heat were victorious over the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing, 106-101, despite being 3-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (207) came in well under the projected point total of 228. The Heat forced 16 turnovers and had an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.1 (above their season average of 26.0). With 18 points, six assists and five rebounds, Dwyane Wade played well for Miami.
After the Heat won both matchups against the Jazz last season, these teams will meet for the first time this year. In the last matchup, Miami won 103-102. The Heat’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over the Jazz. Miami had a rate of 8.0, while Utah posted a mark of 10.8.
Utah comes into the contest with records of 11-12 straight up (SU) and 11-12 against the spread (ATS). Games featuring the Jazz have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (65.2 percent).
Meanwhile, Miami is 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS. Games including the Heat also have typically gone over the projected point total (61.9 percent).
The aggressive Utah offense looks poised to dominate from the free throw line. The Jazz currently rank third in the league with a free throw attempt (FTA) rate of 0.230, while Miami ranks 23rd in FTA rate allowed (0.225).
Utah Jazz at Miami Heat Betting Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
Utah is 8-7 ATS on the road with 8 overs and 7 unders.
Miami is 4-8 ATS at home with 7 overs and 5 unders.
When allowing less than 100 points, Utah is 4-2 and Miami is 3-1.
The Heat are 7-10 when they reach 100 points, while the Jazz are 9-6.
Utah ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.3) while Miami ranks 26th (6.1).
The Jazz rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (11.9) while the Heat rank 28th (16.2).
Utah ranks fifth in rebounds allowed per game (42.3) while Miami ranks 21st (45.9).
The Jazz average 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 15th in the league. The Heat rank 28th in points off turnovers allowed per game (19.5).
Miami ranks 14th in steals allowed per game (7.6) while Utah ranks 25th (9.1).
The Jazz rank 15 in assists per game (23.652173913043477) while the Heat rank 25 (22).
Utah ranks 2 in three pointers allowed per game (27.26086956521739) while Miami ranks 8 (29.761904761904763).
The Heat rank 22 in fast break points per game (11.047619047619047) while the Jazz rank 27 (9.869565217391305).
Miami averages 46.76190476190476 points in the paint per game, which ranks 17 in the league. Utah ranks 19 in points allowed in the paint per game (49.56521739130435).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Utah is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Jazz’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.2, down from 2.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.8 points per game (2.7 below their season average) and allowed an average of 108.2 points per game (1.8 below their season average).
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